Czechia at a crossroads: The uncertain future under Andrej Babiš

As Andrej Babiš reclaims power amid corruption trials and EU tensions, Czechia faces deep uncertainty over its democratic future and global standing.

Czechia's most recent parliamentary election has revealed that former Prime Minister and notable billionaire Andrej Babiš claims victory — of sorts. The deemed right-wing populist party ANO, led by the oligarch, was reported to receive just under 35% of the vote, falling short of a majority and far from a landslide victory or triumph some are calling it; the multiple-business owner will need to stitch together a governing majority with fringe partners. Looking beyond this, is it right to question how Babiš will now lead ANO and seek to improve Czechia, especially given this shift from left to right? What will the wealthy newly elected prime minister do differently —  or not differently —  this time around in power?

Andrej Babiš is often referred to as the Czech version of controversial US President Donald Trump. Like Trump, Babiš has been in and out of court, accused of financial fraud that has overshadowed his political journey over one of his company’s conference centres, "Stork Nest". His suspected involvement in manipulating the centre's ownership for 2 million euros in EU subsidies undoubtedly raises alarm bells and serious concerns about his integrity and fitness to lead. His persistent denial of any wrongdoing and involvement, despite mounting evidence and ongoing court proceedings reflects his dangerous arrogance and an absolute disregard for accountability. Furthermore, this entanglement in corruption paints a deeply disappointing picture of his future leadership of the country and of his moral compass.

ANO ran on a familiar and all-too-well populist playbook: immediate tax reductions and big spending promises fabricated to win votes fast. Yet ANO's appeal to short-term populism and its hesitation to assume long-term responsibilities could be a move they regret in the future when it comes to green taxes, as Babiš has proposed rejecting moves to impose the EU's carbon emission allowances on households, due to take effect in 2027. This would ultimately avoid ever-increasing energy bills, satisfying the Czechian public for at least a short while. ANO has also pledged to cap energy prices and increase state control over the company's dominant energy provider, CEZ, to arguably shield citizens from ‘green burdens’. The party's detrimental and controversial sway toward political convenience over fundamental environmental action, which is now needed more than ever, raises concerns about potential delays in investment in renewable energy and could leave Czechia lagging behind its EU peers in the global sustainability market.

One of the most pressing concerns Czechia could face under ANO's governance is its role in Ukraine amid the Ukraine-Russia war. Ukraine’s vital military aid could face new uncertainty as billionaire Babiš hinted during his election campaign that he would halt ammunition supplies from Prague to Ukraine. This marks a significant reversal from the previous government’s support for coordinating European arms production for Ukraine, which organised the vital delivery of 1.5 million rounds of large-caliber ammunition alongside financial contributions from 14 countries.

Interestingly, a June poll held by the Stem organisation asked the public about the level of Czech support for Ukraine: 49 percent said it was too much, 29 percent that it was about right, and 6 percent felt it was insufficient. Babiš could be set to fulfil the ideas of those who described him as a 'mouldable' political figure to the public as his future intentions within ANO clearly align with the population's collective current opinion. However, a Czech government that openly narrows its direct contribution ultimately risks weakening bonds with Ukraine but also NATO, diminishing the country's voice in vital EU security discussions and deals.

Considering ANO's replacement from the incumbent government, it is deeply worrying that ANO appears unwilling to take fundamental steps to fully protect and advance existing LGBTQ+ rights in Czechia. What's also notable is Babiš' close yet dangerous ties to Hungarian leader Victor Orban, who himself has banned any form of LGBTQ+ propaganda within the country. The future of LGBTQ+ rights already looks uncertain, as it doesn’t already help that the Czech Republic ranks 30th out of 49 countries for LGBTQ+ rights. Such a shift that is feared would mark a dark moment for a country that has worked to evolve from 'traditional' and 'outdated' mindsets, and this political negligence towards this minority could lead to more discrimination and exclusion.

Ultimately, Andrej Babiš' return to power in the Czech Republic marks a troubling turning point for both the nation and the broader European Union. Babiš now possesses the power to determine whether the Czech Republic will be part of a willing coalition or not if he plays his cards right. The uneasiness many feel about his election victory reflects a pivotal yet apprehensive moment for politics not just in Czechia but across the globe. Should we be worried that a male figure so abundant in wealth and influential has now been appointed to a role of such political leadership and control? Yes, we should, and this could be the first step of a regression into self-serving governance and political decay.

Image: Flickr/Vox Espana