A Final Nail or the Final Hurdle: The Sentencing of Marine Le Pen and the Future of France’s (And Europe’s) Far-Right

By Coby Saxby

To say that French politics have been traditionally stable could not be farther from the truth –  but, in line with continental trends, recent years have seen an undeniable rise in populism and right-wing sentiment in France. For the past decade and a half, that sentiment has coalesced around the Far-Right National Rally (RN, Rassemblement National) Party – led by one Marine Le Pen, who took over the party leadership from her father in 2011 and has since acted as the primary political rival to the incumbent centrist ‘En Marche!’/Renaissance (EM/RE) party led by President Emmanuel Macron. While Macron has remained President since 2017, when EM and RN clashed in the Presidential Elections, RN’s popularity seemed to constantly grow in French politics, with the 2022 Presidential Elections seeing the party gain 41% of the vote (compared to 34% in 2017). While Marine Le Pen stepped down as party leader in 2022, she continued to wield incredible power in the RN and French politics as a whole. But in 2025, the question on everyone’s minds was no longer “Will Marine Le Pen become the French President?” as it was in 2022, but “How will Marine Le Pen’s imprisonment affect French (and European) politics?”.

Marine Le Pen and RN have, since December 2023, been embroiled in an embezzlement trial that had its makings a decade earlier. 27 members of RN, including Marine Le Pen, were accused of embezzling EU funding for MEPs to pay the wages of party members by hiring them as ‘assistants’ to RN-affiliated MEPs. The European Anti-Fraud Office started its investigation into RN (called National Front [FN, Front National]) in 2014. However, it has taken years for the French authorities to decide to act on the findings of the investigation, which incriminated Le Pen for dodgy hiring practices. Marine Le Pen was found guilty of embezzlement on the 31st March 2025 alongside eight other MEPs and 12 assistants and subsequently sentenced to two years of house arrest (with an extra two years suspended), given a fine of €100k and barred from standing for political office for five years - which is what has spurred this debate.

Barring any extenuating circumstances, France will hold its next Presidential election in April 2027 - almost exactly two years from this article going public and sitting in the middle of Le Pen’s ban from seeking office. While a Macron-Le Pen showdown was always impossible, as Macron will be forced to turn down re-election due to term limitations, the perceived barring of the country’s most popular opposition figure from running in the next elections has (unsurprisingly) been met with concern and outrage for many both on the domestic stage and across Europe. In France, in line with Le Pen’s claim that the prosecution wanted her “political death”, many politicians across the political spectrum have criticised the decision. The RN’s current leader, Jordan Bardella, stated that the decision was tantamount to “French democracy…being executed” by “red judges”. François Bayrou, France’s centre-right (and usually pro-Macron) Prime Minister, has called the decision “deeply disturbing” - although it should be stated that Bayrou had the same charges lobbied against him in previous years (unsuccessfully). Even Gérald Darmanin, a cabinet minister in Macron’s own party, stated that a ban on Le Pen holding office would be “deeply shocking”, a clear sign that politicians across French politics have expressed concerns over the precedent being set. Foreign outrage at the decision has been no less prevalent, with right-wing figureheads from Viktor Orban and Nigel Farage to Elon Musk and even from within the Kremlin all decrying a perceived assault on French democracy. With this political drama now reaching far beyond France’s borders, analysts are now beginning to question the implications the Le Pen trial will have not just on French politics but the momentum of the right as a whole.

In France (and the EU), the primary fear on many people’s minds is that the judgment will only invigorate political and ethnic tensions. As much as the RN has tried to move on from the days of Jean-Marie’s leadership and the rampant xenophobia against refugees from France’s collapsing empire, the RN continues to act as the primary actor railing against immigrants and ‘cancel culture’ and in the eyes of many this decision to bar the most popular right-wing party has vindicated these viewpoints and only helped to make them more mainstream amongst the electorate, and helped to radicalise an already riled group. And across Europe, populists are already starting to use Le Pen to justify their accusations of censorship from the ‘establishment’ to further promote their political parties. With Le Pen already preparing to appeal the decision of the courts, French politics is firmly in ‘the grey’ - with no one able to know for certain what will happen next. Will the RN face the next elections under Bardella’s leadership or with a reinstated Le Pen? Will the RN be disgraced and left behind in history, or will Le Pen’s conviction see a European twist on Trump’s ‘mugshot moment’ and propel the party to the top? These questions will, regrettably, not have an answer for some time, pending the results of what could be a months-long appeal of Le Pen’s ban.