A new or recycled Reform?

By by Ingrid Cochrane

Last week saw the defection of Suella Braverman to Reform UK. Joining Andrew Rosindell and Robert Jenrick as the third sitting Conservative MP to defect in less than two weeks, the former Home Secretary’s move was not entirely out of the blue, reflecting continued momentum for Reform UK as they remain Britain’s most popular political party, polling at 29% following Braverman’s defection.

Taken together with Reform UK having welcomed 14 Conservative councillors earlier this month, this steady stream of Conservative defections raises the question of whether Reform is on the road to becoming the Conservatives reincarnated; or as Labour MPs have put it, a party of “misfits or electoral rejects”.

The communications strategies of Labour and the Conservatives reflect the parties’ desires to frame these growing defections in their own interests. The Conservatives will of course be concerned as to whether the number of Tory defections to Reform marks the gradual extinction of the Conservative party. In response, Kemi Badenoch has pointed to the opportunism of recent defectors, suggesting defections to Reform UK are for personal gain, particularly in response to Jenrick and Braverman’s failures in the Tory leadership contest in 2024. Could this attack on the motives of defectors strengthen the narrative that Reform UK does not offer anything genuinely new?

Perhaps. Labour seem similarly keen to portray Reform as a recycled party lacking authenticity, counteracting Farage’s construction of Reform UK as the only party capable of delivering change. Keen to capitalise on the Conservative’s continued unpopularity following their worst ever General Election result in 2024, a new Labour digital media campaign is reportedly in the works to frame Reform as “Tories: The Sequel”. Strengthening Reform UK’s association with 14 years of Conservative corruption and incompetency seems a tactically sound way to attempt to dampen Reform’s appeal. 

Though from opposing angles, it is in both Labour and the Conservatives’ strategic, self–preserving interests to suggest that Reform does not represent a genuine platform of change. Although Badenoch’s branding of defectors as opportunists undeniably holds more than a grain of truth, Braverman’s defection arguably represents more than personal ambition, as she has a track-record of Reform–adjacent politics, being at the right of the Conservative party. Her proclamation that it felt like she had come home after having felt “politically homeless” and a “hound[ed] out right-winger” amongst the Conservatives does not necessarily ring hollow given her previous criticism of the Tories for failing to acknowledge that Britain is broken.

This steady stream of Conservative defections raises the question of whether Reform is on the road to becoming the Conservatives reincarnated; or as Labour MPs have put it, a party of “misfits or electoral rejects”.

Meanwhile, Farage’s Reform UK is posed with a dilemma: how do they fulfil their need for politicians with parliamentary and cabinet experience without compromising their brand as a uniquely new political platform challenging the status quo? Farage has attempted to dispel claims that Reform UK is merely a care home for retired and rejected Conservative MPs, writing of vetting processes that have led to various prospective Conservative defectors being turned away from Reform. Similarly, Reform requires that defectors denounce that Britain is broken, a statement that recent polls suggest 68% of the population believe, drawing a bright line between themselves and the Conservatives, whose official party line is that Britain is not in fact broken. 

Clearly, there is some degree of selection going on: even if defectors such as Nadim Zahawi appear to be careerists, Reform have evidently decided the trade-off in such instances between gaining experience and suffering from political brand dilution is a calculated risk they are willing to take. Indeed, early indications from voters can be viewed favourably by Reform: a poll by Freshwater Strategy this week revealed that 44% of voters believed Tory defections would bolster Reform’s electoral chances whilst only 14% believed they would hurt them. Are voters perhaps less bothered by previous party affiliations of defectors than Labour and the Conservatives would like to believe?

Nevertheless, Farage has announced that the “Deadline Day” for defectors to join Reform is May 7, the day of upcoming local elections. In the scenario that Reform performs well and the Conservatives suffer heavy losses, this ultimatum preempts and prevents more blatantly strategic defections. Tory defections following clearer evidence of Conservative failure to perform with voters will likely be viewed much less favourably by Reform supporters: such defections may seem merely forced upon politicians for personal political survival rather than from any genuine conviction of Reform UK’s unique ability to fix Britain.

Ultimately, even with the addition of former Conservative MPs, Reform UK has the advantage. Nigel Farage, the personification of Reform UK as a challenge to the status quo, only became an MP in 2024. The strength of supporters’ associations of Reform UK with Farage may eclipse the impression of a recycled, inauthentic Reform that the opposition are trying to cultivate. A defection deadline of May 7 only reinforces the impression that Farage is committed to maintaining Reform’s position as a disruptor party, and may precipitate further defections in the weeks and months to come.

Conservative politicians will be weighing up how well Kemi Badenoch can unite the Tories ahead of the early snapshot of public opinion the local elections will provide ahead of the general election. This comes against a backdrop of the Reform defections to date as well as the recently announced Conservative faction Prosper UK, further jeopardising Conservative party unity. 

Future defections seem inevitable, but the scale remains to be seen. The onus is on Conservatives to take a stand: act quickly, or not at all

Image: Huete