Are we facing an 'Ulsterisation'?

My hometown of Preston is covered in flags. England flags pinned up to lamp posts, and every white surface has a red cross plastered on it. It’s quite an unusual sight in a

country which is normally so reserved about patriotism. Flags used to be only for

national holidays and England matches.

The project to put up these flags has a name: ‘Operation Raise the Colours.’ It

seemingly began in the suburbs of Birmingham when some locals began raising English

and British flags. Before long, however, these flags were removed by the council so that some LED lighting could be installed. This triggered a massive and supposedly ‘Patriotic’ backlash. In response, thousands of flags have been raised in public spaces, marking a significant change in the look of much of the country.

Some may interpret this as just another passing frenzy whipped up by growing right wing sentiment in this country. In many ways this is not totally dissimilar to the deranged responses of some to Lucy Connolly’s imprisonment. But be dismissive at your own peril; this movement marks another concerning trend in the development of this country’s politics and culture. This article is going to argue that the UK might be heading down a similar path to Northern Ireland before the Troubles, meaning an increasingly divided and sectarian society, possibly headed to widespread disorder.

What is ‘Ulsterisation’?

'Ulsterisation' was coined as a term in the 1970s. At the time, it referred to efforts by the

British state to reduce its involvement in the civil war occurring in Northern Ireland. This

included the withdrawal of non-Ulster British Army units and greater use of the Police

instead of the Army.

Reform is already beginning to serve as a mouthpiece for the anxieties of White England.

In recent years, however, the term has gained a new meaning. ‘Ulsterisation’ in this

context refers to a society going through a similar process, which unfolded in Northern

Ireland before and during the Troubles. That means increased division and sectarianism

between ethnic groups, the division of public spaces between those groups, the

radicalisation of politics to reflect the interests of ethnic communities and possibly the

beginning of widespread violence.

Signs of ‘Ulsterisation’ in the UK

In a recent article for Unherd, Aris Roussinos laid out his argument that England is

becoming increasingly ‘Ulsterised.’ The heart of the argument is that the White English working class in this country feels increasingly aggrieved. The UK has experienced

significant demographic change in recent years due to historically high levels of

immigration. Rightly or wrongly, this has produced anxiety amongst much of the White

British majority at the changing character of their communities. Combined with a

stagnant economy and a decayed social fabric after decades of Neoliberalism, the

conditions for a right-wing backlash are ripe.

[In an 'Ulsterised' England] Physically, public spaces, particularly in major urban centres and towns, could become more clearly demarcated as seen in Northern Ireland.

Roussinos suggests that much of White Britain is developing a ‘siege mentality’ similar

to that possessed by Northern Irish Protestants during the Troubles. Much of White

Britain views their identity and social status as under threat, and they are responding in

increasingly radical and violent ways.

The signs of this ‘siege mentality’ developing are all around us. The proliferation of

English and British flags across public spaces in the UK might be part of the process.

Flags in Northern Ireland have historically played an important role. They were a way for

Protestant and Catholic communities to express their identities and demarcate their

control of areas. Rousinnos also suggests that in heavily South Asian and Muslim

areas, Palestinian flags may be adopting a similar function.

Interestingly, one of the groups that has promoted ‘Operation Raise the Colours’ has

also expressed interest in commissioning ‘patriotic’ murals. In Northern Ireland, murals

have long played an important role, not only as a way of demarcating a community's identity but often as a way of commemorating those killed during the Troubles. Don’t be

surprised if these kinds of murals, along with flags, become an ingrained feature of the

English cityscape in years to come.

[The results of the 2024 General Election] marks an increasingly sectarian kind of politics for the UK, where ethnic communities vote as blocks based on communal interests.

Outside of the symbolic sphere, another feature of England’s ‘Ulsterisation’ might

include growing ethnic and racial violence. Major public unrest in the UK has historically

been relatively infrequent. Before last summer's unrest, in which unfounded rumours

spread that the murders in Southport were committed by a Muslim immigrant, the last

major bout of riots in England occurred in 2011. Though violence this summer has been

less extreme than in 2024, it seems to have become predictable that English summers

come with unrest.

This growing violence isn’t just unfocused explosions of anger, but is often organised

and targeted, and more importantly, increasingly effective. In Ballymena, Northern

Ireland, in June of this year, a targeted program of violence began. The town's small immigrant community, predominantly Bulgarian, Filipino and Roma, was targeted after two 14-year-old boys were accused of sexually assaulting a young local girl. Riots and violence targeted at the community began. Despite condemnations by Northern Irish politicians and Kier Starmer, the violence seems to have been highly effective, with an estimated two-thirds of the 1200 Roma people in Ballymena reportedly having fled. With little exaggeration, this can be described as a successful ethnic cleansing of a

community in Modern Britain.

Politically, as well, there are signs. Britain’s white working classes are abandoning

Labour and the Conservatives en masse for Reform UK, which currently tops the polls.

At the last general election as well, many heavily Asian and Muslim communities also

abandoned Labour, primarily for their lack of support for Palestine, and instead voted

for the so-called ‘Gaza Independents.’ Though understandable, it also marks an

increasingly sectarian kind of politics for the UK, where ethnic communities vote as

blocks based on communal interests.

What might an ‘Ulsterised’ England look like?

If current trends hold, what might an ‘Ulsterised’ England look like? Physically, public

spaces, particularly in major urban centres and towns, could become more clearly

demarcated as seen in Northern Ireland. Flags, murals painted on the sides of

buildings, would clearly indicate which community was dominant in a certain area.

Violence would be used as a tool to further political interests.

Our politics would be increasingly extreme. Reform is already beginning to serve as a

mouthpiece for the anxieties of White England. But even Reform might be outcompeted

by other, more extreme groups (as happened in Northern Ireland, where the Ulster

Unionists were pushed out by the Democratic Unionists). Minority communities

intimidated by increased racism and political extremism would vote for political parties

which would protect them and their interests.

Violence would become more commonplace. Major rioting and unrest would become a

regular feature, perhaps particularly in summer when major public gatherings become

more appetising. Violence would be used as a tool to further political interests. Court

decisions relating to where migrants can be housed (such as the controversy relating to

Epping) may become irrelevant as targeted violence makes the presence of asylum-

seekers in certain parts of the country unfeasible.

Conclusion

Of course, this is all speculation. Contrary to the fantasies of the English far-right, the

UK is unlikely to descend into some kind of race war. There are many reasons why a

descent to Northern Ireland's levels of violence is unlikely. The UK remains a strong democracy with strong institutions and the ability to contain public disorder; the notion that major political parties would begin to promote or approve of organised violence is unfeasible, as is the suggestion that Northern-Irish-style paramilitaries could organise in the UK.

But the UK is becoming a more sectarian, racist and violent society. This fact might be

less visible to those of us who live in comparatively liberal and prosperous parts of the

country, such as the South-East and London, but it is increasingly apparent. This

process will only be prevented through radical changes to the status quo.

Image: The Five Demands/Creative Commons