Conservatives’ local election campaign: Kemi Badenoch’s first test

On March 20th, Kemi Badenoch, leader of the Conservative Party, made an appearance in Buckinghamshire to announce the party's local election campaign. Preaching the new slogan of “lower taxes, better services”, Badenoch marked the beginning of the long road ahead for the Tories as they embark on their journey to earn back the trust and power they once had, before their catastrophic general election loss in July of 2024. 

In the last election cycle for this set of local council seats (2021), the Conservatives totalled 2,345 councillors elected, a massive victory over Labour’s 1,345. However, at the time of these elections, the party was cruising on the high of the success of the COVID-19 vaccine roll out under Boris Johnson. Just three years later however, on July 4th 2024, the Conservatives saw “the greatest defeat in our party's history” according to Badenoch herself. As such, the Tory leader, although hopeful that the party will “do a bit better than that [of the 2024 general election]” she highlights that the road ahead will be “tough” and “extremely difficult” for the Tories to earn back the trust they once had amongst areas which previously had every confidence in the Conservative Party.

When comparing an election map of the UK in 2021 to that of 2024, Badenoch herself admits that her party lost “almost every single one” of the areas which had previously had faith in the Conservatives. With a threat from every surrounding party on the political compass, the Conservatives faced great loss.

Although the obvious threat to the party has been their left-wing counterpart — Labour — it is also undeniable that their fellow right wing party — Reform UK — also raises considerable alarm for the Tories. Of the five seats Reform won in 2024, three of them had previously been Conservative strongholds. Furthermore, in the areas that the Conservatives managed to keep a hold of, for the majority of cases, Reform was the party that held the second most votes, clearly posing a challenge to the Conservatives despite their status as a minor party. As such, in these coming local elections, it is likely that the current Conservative-held councils will be forced to sit alongside Reform members.

The Conservatives have faced a perilously steep uphill climb, defending the areas they managed to grasp in the general election, whilst aiming to regain areas in which they were defeated, all while receiving attacks from both the left and right. Thus, a successful election for the Tories will unlikely mean significant gains across the country, instead, the bar is set fairly low. Simply gaining back a fraction of support in areas they lost just 10 months ago in the general election would be a significant step in the right direction for the party as they begin a trajectory of claiming back the prestige and power they once adorned so proudly. 

Kemi Badenoch currently remains buoyant, despite the difficulties that lie ahead. In her speech in Buckinghamshire, Badenoch referenced the fact that, since the general election, the Conservatives have won and held a total of 59 by-elections seats..

The party’s new slogan “lower taxes, better services” embodied this, alongside her continuous critique of Labour run councils, aiming to establish the Conservatives as the most favourable option. In her Buckinghamshire speech, Badenoch stated, “Conservative councils are better. Conservative councils do more with less. We fix 5 times more roads than Labour councils and fly tipping is 3 times worse in run Labour areas.” In feeding on the discontent of the current Labour government, this strategy will play a significant role in how successfully the Conservatives combatted the left within their campaign. 

However, it is less clear how exactly the Tories have tackled their opposition from the right — Reform UK. Reform has proven themselves to be capable of not only taking Tory seats, but also a large number of their votes, leaving them weaker and open to attack from various other parties such as the Liberal Democrats and Labour. It has been suggested by the Conservative shadow minister Greg Smith, that the Tories should establish an informal pact with Reform “in order to get rid of socialism from our country” —  suggesting that the Conservatives’ only hope in beating Labour is to join forces with Nigel Farage. However, as it stands it is unlikely that Badenoch will concede to this deal, as it reflects poorly on the Conservatives and illustrates a political weakness to form a formidable opposition.

The next couple months for the right are very much unpredictable and there is no way to truly tell, at this early first stage, just how the Conservatives will perform. However, their party leader is confident in their ability to take back control. Although not aiming for a landslide, the Tories are hopeful of marginal gains, and muted holds. The campaign has undeniably presented hurdle after hurdle for the Conservatives, and so the British people can only wait to see how the former ruling party fare.

Image: Flickr/ CCHQ