Europe on edge: Russian provocations expose NATO vulnerabilities

By Coby Saxby

On 9 September 2025, the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation was put to the test. Almost two dozen drones - many of which have since been identified as domestically-manufactured derivatives of the infamous ‘Shahed’ series of loitering munitions used en-masse by the Russian Federation in Ukraine - breached Polish airspace. 

The alliance was found wanting. Only four of twenty-three drones were shot down, and although there were, fortunately, no casualties, the alliance failed to implement any concrete steps to deter further incidents. While the alliance has since promised to reinforce existing security operations in Eastern Poland, it was clearly not enough. Russia was not finished.

In the aftermath of the 9th September incident, multiple NATO nations have reported security violations in their airspace. While this article will not bloat itself by describing in detail each incident, it will provide a brief summary. 

In Estonia, three Russian combat aircraft violated Estonian airspace for over ten minutes, with NATO scrambling aircraft to respond but allowing the aircraft to leave on their own accord. Finland, Romania, Latvia, Lithuania and Norway have also experienced airspace violations by Russian aircraft. Drone activity has forced civilian airports in Denmark and Norway to shut for reasons of aircraft safety. 

Cyberattacks have also hit Berlin Brandenburg Airport, Brussels Airport and London Heathrow Airport, causing cancellations and severe disruption to civil air travel. And in the week spent researching and writing this article, there have been continued provocations against Denmark, Norway and Germany - with manned and unmanned aircraft alike disrupting both military and civilian activities in these countries in violation of international law. 

This news, as concerning as it may sound, should not come as a shock. Even prior to the outbreak of the so-called ‘Special Military Operation’ against Ukraine in February 2022, the Kremlin has sustained a campaign of provocation and sabotage against numerous NATO states - even going as far as to use chemical weapons on NATO soil in 2018 - targeting the former spy Sergei Skripal in Salisbury. 

But since 2022, Russian activity has become increasingly common and increasingly brazen. Russian drone surveillance against targets well within NATO territory has become a regular occurrence - with drones reportedly maintaining watch over military activity in Eastern Germany and Poland from both Russian ships and groups on the ground. Russian spies have attempted to strike NATO’s arms industry - even going as far as to plan an assassination on the CEO of Rheinmetall, one of Europe’s largest arms manufacturers.

Russian media continues to rally against NATO and Europe and calls for the annexation of former Soviet territories, while propaganda campaigns targeted against European politics promote radical right-wing and left-wing groups in a bid to destabilise the political status quo and oust explicitly anti-Russian parties across the continent. Russian-backed conspiracies have already been thwarted in Romania and Moldova in recent months.

But while this ‘hybrid warfare’ against NATO has been ongoing for years, this ramping up of pressure has come largely out of the blue. While Russia launched its annual ‘Zapad’ military exercises concurrently with the outbreak of these airspace incursions, there was no change in the general circumstances in the relationship to prompt a change in Moscow’s stance. What has changed recently, however, is affairs on the ground in Ukraine.

In contrast to the dire news coming from the country for the first half of the year, Ukraine has managed to survive another summer, and Russian casualties only appear to be rising, while territorial gains grow slower and costlier.

While the Ukrainian war effort continues to suffer gravely, the Russian economy is at its lowest point since 2022, and a recent escalation of Ukraine’s air campaign against Russian industry has created a fuel crisis within the country, fracturing public support for the war.

On the diplomatic front, an ever-indecisive White House is signalling disdain for Vladimir Putin and his unwillingness to cooperate at the failed Anchorage Summit last month, which Donald Trump had intended to produce a ceasefire and meet his promise to end the war. NATO aid flows into Ukraine unabated, and Russia’s list of strategic partners remains limited. Moscow does not have the capability to maintain a forever war in Ukraine, nor does it have the appetite to. If it cannot end the war at the front, Moscow could be looking further afield to produce a desirable outcome.

NATO finds itself on the back foot and struggles with juggling the risk of over-escalating towards open conflict between Russia and Europe or breaking down and collapsing in the face of Russian pressure. While Moscow is straining under renewed Ukrainian pressure at the front, it may see breaking NATO as a way out of its quagmire. War is in the interest of no party, but continued failure to respond to these provocations risks the end of European democracy as we know it - and a total breakdown of the fragile global order. 

Image: Ukrainska Pravda