By Jack Keen
In 2021, Chancellor Olaf Scholz assembled a 56% majority government known as the 'traffic light' coalition, following the German Bundestag election that year. Bundestag elections operate on a mixed-member proportional representation system: half the seats are allocated proportionally to the share in the popular vote, and half is based on local representative voting as a first-past-the-post method. Elections to the Bundestag often result in split legislatures, which tend to require a coalition between parties in order to establish a ruling government.
The 'traffic light' coalition was such an instance; it consisted of Scholz’s own party, the Social Democratic Party (SDP), the Greens and the Free Democratic Party (FDP). To build an alliance, it was agreed that the FDP leader Christian Lindner would become Finance Minister and as the leader of the largest party, Scholz would become Chancellor. However, on November 6 2024, Lindner was fired following growing tensions within the coalition and economic policy disputes. This disintegrated the coalition and effectively moved the FDP into opposition. The coalition fell apart, leaving Germany without a government able to pass legislation. What does this mean for the German leadership? Will there be an election? What might that outcome be and what does this mean for German politics and wider European unity?
The process towards the federal election has begun. The first step has been taken; Scholz has announced his intention to call for a confidence vote in his own government in January 2025. As there is no majority to affirm confidence, the vote is expected to fail. This would enable Scholz to request the President to dissolve the Bundestag, which would trigger a snap election in mid-February.
An election will likely overturn the current governing parties. According to current polling, the ruling SDP is set to be replaced by the Christian Democratic Union (CDU). In the 2021 election, the SDP gained 26% of the vote but is now polling at only 16%. Similarly, the FDP has collapsed from 9% to polls of 4% whilst the more right-wing conservative CDU, which won 22.5% last election, is now polling the highest at 32%. Furthermore, there is potential for the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) to rise in power. Whilst only garnering 10% of the vote in 2021, they have been steadily increasing in popularity and are currently polling between 19% and 27%. According to polling, the CDU would have the highest number of votes, followed by AfD, then SDP. Therefore, CDU leader Friedrich Merz could be Germany’s next chancellor.
An interesting trend has been the rising popularity of the AfD in eastern, former Soviet bloc areas, making it a serious contender for power. The AfD are considered extreme right-wing populists, whose policies include Eurosceptism, liberal economics, national conservatism, and opposing immigration. In the recent regional elections, the AfD won a majority in Thuringia and came in a close second place in Saxony. Despite its growing popularity and working with CDU at the local level, the AfD is unlikely to be included in a coalition: other parties oppose national cooperation with an organisation stained with perceived extremism.
However, the rising popularity of AfD has caused other parties to consider shifting towards more radical policies. The AfD has “prompted mainstream parties to reconsider their views, on national identity and immigration … In an attempt to win them (voters) back the CDU/CSU and the SPD have somewhat shifted towards a stance similar to that of the AfD”. If the AfD were to become a major party in the coming election, this phenomenon may intensify.
What might the future government look like? To begin with, the CDU has vowed not to form a coalition with the AfD, meaning it will most likely join with Scholz’s SDP party. Yet based on current polling, a CDU and SDP union would need a third party in order to govern. The likely contenders are the Greens or the more ideologically suitable FDP. However, as the last few weeks show, 3-way coalitions are unstable. Wide ideological differences in the same government tend to result in additional bureaucratic negotiations and slower decisions. This tri-party type of coalition would be only the second of its kind since German reunification, the first being Scholz’s coalition.
It is a particularly bad time for a leadership vacuum. The EU’s most powerful nations, Germany and France, are becoming increasingly divided due to the weak political situations of their leaders. Both French President Emmanuel Macron and Scholz are unpopular leaders who work with diminishing majorities in their government. They may take a stronger ideological stance to boost appeal to their base, so their present cooperation with the EU is shaky, and prospects are unlikely to improve. The CDU are ideologically more hesitant to cooperate and support smaller EU members. Furthermore, the rise of the far-right AfD increases advocacy for nationalist policies. Even if the AfD does not gain power, the mainstream parties like CDU and SDP will be influenced by their policies.
The fall of the 'traffic light' coalition marks a turning point in German politics, potentially seeing a resurgence of right-wing populism in Germany. We may be seeing a redefining of Germany’s role in the world, and we should be watching very closely.
Image: Associated Press
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