By Jack Keen
Donald Trump, by most accounts, was presumed to lose his 2016 presidential bid. Yet, overnight, the rank outsider managed to take the press, the public, and a much-dismayed Hillary Clinton by surprise. The supposed underdog won the presidency against all odds. Eight years later, Democrats are not so naïve. They are preparing for all eventualities, doing their utmost to make sure history does not repeat itself.
Kamala Harris, since Joe Biden’s withdrawal in July, has been leading the polls. But in recent weeks, Trump has been closing the gap from a 3-point lead down to 1. Less than two weeks before the final line, this is the context of the 2024 US presidential election: a bitter and incredibly close race, in which both candidates play everything they have to turn every vote available in their favour. At the time of writing, Harris is still leading the polls. So, why can we believe that Donald Trump has a good chance of returning to the White House?
"Trump’s arguments are easy to follow and remember. They have fostered a devoted and motivated voter base, the likes of which the Democratic Party lacks."
Put simply, Harris' lead is not sufficiently strong. Previous elections have shown that candidates need to poll ahead by 3-5 points to guarantee election victory. Take the Bush vs Gore 2000 election. Polls suggested that George Bush led by 2% but, in fact, Al Gore won the popular vote by half a point. So, Harris’ 1% polling lead is not enough to win the popular vote.
As a black person and a woman, Harris is likely to be a victim of the Bradley effect, where non-white candidates typically poll higher than reality. It reveals how voters lie to polling officials and keep their bias to the privacy of the voting booth. So, Harris is likely to lose her polling lead due to hidden racism and sexism. Pundits estimate she needs to be ahead by 5-10% to be able to overcome this effect. To make matters worse for Harris, despite leading the popular vote polls, Trump leads in 5 out of 7 swing states: Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Nevada and only losing in Michigan and Wisconsin by 0.7 and 0.8%, which again is simply not enough.
Trump has succeeded in engaging and sustaining a loyal and motivated base, that will turn up on November 5. These faithful voters believe Trump has not only a robust economic plan but also the ability to be strong and bring respect to the USA internationally. Trump’s relentless ‘patriotic’ America-first sentiment and ‘culture wars’ have appealed to many and seem a very convincing vote-winning argument.
Trump’s arguments are easy to follow and remember. They have fostered a devoted and motivated voter base, the likes of which the Democratic Party lacks. The fear and hatred that drives the GOP base is much more emotive and motivational than the one driving the Democrats. Come election day, these voters will mobilise and turn out to vote for their candidate to a much higher percentage than the Democrats will.
Furthermore, these faithful voters believe in Trump unconditionally, which has let him get away with scandals hitherto fatal to presidential candidates. Currently, Trump is involved in numerous cases ranging from fraud to election subversion to sexual assault. He is a convicted felon in New York for financial fraud on 34 counts. He has consistently made false and unfounded claims of election fraud. His request to Vice-President Mike Pence not to certify the 2020 election results led to the terrible events of January 6 2020, when the Capitol Building was stormed and 5 people died. Trump has also been found liable for sexually assaulting E. Jean Carrol in 1996 and has a long history of expressing extremely misogynistic and racist comments. Despite this, his fans remain faithful.
Clearly, different standards apply to each candidate. Trump can get away with almost anything, whereas Harris’ supporters demand perfection. The hypocrisy has noticeably benefited Trump: he has escaped numerous scandals, that would normally be fatal to other candidates.
While Trump has a seemingly untouchable reputation, Harris is losing ground, even amongst her most loyal supporters. She has suffered from her proximity to power. Harris is being tarnished with the current administration’s stance on Israel, and the perceived weak economy. The Biden administration's friendly and supportive policy towards Israel during the Israel-Hamas War has been criticised by the Democratic base. A group usually loyal to their candidate, is wavering. Furthermore, Harris is having difficulty expanding her political appeal due to inflation levels. Despite low unemployment and high GDP growth, the high inflation levels, peaking at 9.1%, have caused many Americans to believe that the ‘on-paper’ success has not benefited them; they see prices go higher, and less money in their pockets.
With all these factors in play, Donald Trump is likely to become the 47th President of the United States. The night of November 5 is the 60th quadrennial presidential election and I, for one, will be watching into the early hours.
Image: Flickr
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