Independents in the US Congress: a real circuit breaker?

By Isaac Tunley

The US Congress is by design supposed to be a powerful institution that legislates in a cooperative, cross-party manner, with single-party legislation difficult to pass, particularly in the Senate given the 60-vote filibuster. However, governing in the US has become virtually impossible as the two-party dominance of the Republican and Democratic parties entrenches further. As US politics polarises more, and the ideological gulf between the two parties widens, Congress has become ever more dysfunctional, with the visible government shutdowns and near-total lack of oversight under Trump’s second term acting as clear examples. Even beyond Trump, Congress looks set to continue its decline, given the dominance of the Republican and Democratic parties, with third-party and independent candidates being structurally unable to match the fundraising, infrastructure, name-recognition, and other benefits of the two parties. It is therefore unsurprising when insurgent groups, such as the Democratic Socialists of America, opt to run for Congress within the two-party system rather than without it as a third-party.

This may yet change, however. As the 2026 midterm elections reach their fractious, ideological, and partisan crescendo, there is a renewed push to break the two-party system. Former Senator Joe Manchin, who left the Democratic Party in 2024, has launched a new organisation, the Independent Leadership Council, to recruit, support, and ultimately elect independent candidates to Congress. Far from a doomed effort, the attempt may yet have legs to it, and it may be the circuit breaker Congress desperately needs.

As Manchin has been keen to stress, independents are a large grouping in the US. According to CNN’s exit poll in the 2024 US Presidential election, 34% of voters identified as Independent, only slightly below 35% of voters who identified as Republican and 31% Democrat. Perhaps more promisingly, voters who identified as “Moderate” formed the plurality of the electorate by far at 42% of respondents, above 35% Conservative and 23% Liberal, indicating a large bloc of voters in the US do not identify with the two main parties or the ideologies they follow. This offers immense opportunity for the numerous competitive independent candidates running in the 2026 elections, showcasing a growing appetite for politicians beyond the two-party system.

Such independents can wield power and influence beyond party divides, which may be the circuit breaker that Congress desperately needs

For instance, Dan Osborn is running for Senate for the second time in the strongly conservative state of Nebraska. In 2024, Osborn came within 7% of unseating the Republican incumbent in Nebraska’s other Senate seat by employing his bona fides as a down-to-earth, working-class independent with stances on key issues, such as border security and the 2nd amendment, far more attractive to Nebraska than the national Democratic brand. In California, Kevin Kiley is fighting for re-election in a solidly Democratic district after being gerrymandered out of his old district in California as part of the unfavourable, unprecedented mid-decade redistricting both parties have engaged in. The sole independent member of the House of Representatives, Kiley, left the Republican Party this year, citing deep frustration with the “hyper-partisanship” of Congress. Though the backgrounds of these independent candidates are multifaceted, what unites them and their campaign rhetoric is an almost total refutation of the two-party politics of the US.

It isn’t hard to see why lawmakers such as Kiley are angered by Congress’s dysfunctionality. Partisanship and politicisation are promoted over governing, with the past few years wrought with paralysis, debt ceiling crises that have turned into political footballs, and a seeming inability to tackle the overwhelming long-term crises the US faces, such as its declining status and reputation in foreign affairs, soaring national debt and the unsustainable nature of spending on Social Security and Medicare, both of which are predicted to be insolvent in years.  Put plainly, it is evident that there are deep-seated failures in the US government beyond the Trump administration. Both parties have failed in governing. Arguably, Trump is nothing more than a symptom of the heavy cynicism and politicisation of the early 2010s, where the Tea Party dragged the Republican Party to the Right and tried to drag down the country with it, while the Democrats eventually fell into indulging the same ideological infighting while defining themselves little beyond opposition to Trump. As a result, there has been a gulf of well-thought-out, long-term policy from Washington, D.C., which only fuels the anger, politicisation, and record 86% disapproval rating the American public gives Congress.

What might solve such an impasse may come in the form of such independent candidates in Congress – independents that don’t have to take a party whip, unlike Bernie Sanders, to gain influence in Congress. With party majorities thin in Congress and bipartisanship lacking, truly independent lawmakers can make a difference in more well-rounded legislation. Just ask Manchin himself, who wielded unprecedented influence in a deadlocked 50-50 Senate in Biden’s first two years to the point of obstinacy with his more progressive colleagues. 

Therefore, as unlikely as it may seem, the anger, national environment, and numbers are theoretically present for independent candidates beyond the Democratic and Republican dichotomy to be elected. Such independents can wield power and influence beyond party divides, which may be the circuit breaker that Congress desperately needs to avoid the cycle of endless partisanship that has gripped it and US politics as a whole for decades. Therefore, with the Republican and Democratic rhetoric heating up for the November elections, it would be wise to be mindful of the tens of millions of voters who identify as neither, nor particularly the candidates who are also running as neither that may win their support.

Image: Bjoertvedt / Wikimedia Commons