By Tristan Donaldson
With the two biggest parties in the Irish coalition– Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil– looking strong in the polls; the government (which includes the Green Party) recently agreed to call a snap election. This decision suggests the parties are confident they can retain control of parliament, choosing not to wait until the end of their term in March next year. The central issues in this election are immigration and housing; as frustration among the population grows, focus has pivoted from Sinn Féin to right-wing solutions– a political climate leaving the ruling parties set to remain in government.
Despite the dominance of Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil (both centre-right parties), the more left-leaning republican party, Sinn Féin, had been making gains in recent years. Despite ending up in opposition after the 2020 Irish election, the party did win the popular vote– polling as high as 36% in 2022 and securing the most seats in the Northern Irish Assembly elections. Additionally, Sinn Féin had the most MPs of all the Northern Irish parties in the recent 2024 UK general election– a promising position.
However, since 2022, Sinn Féin’s popularity has been steadily declining, leaving the party looking likely to remain in opposition after the upcoming election. The fall in Sinn Féin’s popularity is due to both its policies and several internal scandals. For example, the party appeared soft on immigration, an issue of increasing salience in Irish politics in recent years and for which the population has begun to look to right-wing solutions. The first of the scandals came after it was discovered that two Sinn Féin press officers had given references for a former party employee who was under criminal investigation for child sex offences. On top of this, at the end of 2023, it was revealed that a Sinn Féin senator who claimed he quit the party due to health reasons, had actually been suspended for sending inappropriate text messages to a teenager.
"Strategic reform within the Fine Gael party, as well as a shift in focus to right-wing solutions to social issues, has resulted in Sinn Féin losing their position in the election."
While Sinn Féin has slipped down in the polls, currently sitting at around 19%, Fine Gael’s recent change in leadership has led to a surge in popularity over recent months. In March of this year, party leader and taoiseach Leo Varadkar stepped down from both these positions. His replacement, Simon Harris, has brought new energy to the party that has translated to the polls. Clearly capitalising on his position as the youngest leader ever of the Republic of Ireland, Harris’s savvy media skills (which contributed to Fine Gael’s popularity) has led to him being dubbed the “TikTok taoiseach”. The party is polling around 24%; ahead of their coalition partners Fianna Fáil, who are sitting around 20%.
In the lead-up to Ireland's snap election, housing and immigration have emerged as pivotal issues shaping the political landscape.
The current coalition parties face the challenge of addressing the housing crisis without self-accusation, whilst countering the narrative that immigrants are to blame for the shortage. Meanwhile, far-right candidates are capitalising on public frustration, advocating for stricter immigration controls and prioritising housing for native citizens.
The nation's housing crisis has been a persistent concern for years. Despite government initiatives, the shortage of affordable housing persists, exacerbated by rising property prices and rental costs. It stems from decades of policies that favoured market-driven solutions over substantial public housing initiatives– an approach which has resulted in one of Europe's most acute shortages in affordable housing. In September 2023, the number of homeless individuals reached a record high of 14,760– this includes 4,561 children. This scarcity has intensified debates surrounding immigration, as some factions link the influx of refugees and asylum seekers to the housing shortfall.
Immigration has thus become a critical topic as far-right groups exploit the housing crisis to fuel anti-immigrant sentiments. In the year leading up to April 2024, the country experienced its highest immigration levels since 2007 and protesters have since taken to the streets to express their concerns over resource allocation and community integration. These protests have periodically been co-opted by far-right elements, leading to a rise in xenophobic rhetoric. Incidents such as the 2019 arson attacks on the Shannon Key West hotel, intended to house asylum seekers, underscore the tensions surrounding immigration and illustrate the significance of this topic.
This tense and frustrated political climate emphasises the need for clear, comprehensive strategies that tackle the root causes of the housing crisis and promote inclusive policies for all residents. As Ireland approaches the election, the discourse on housing and immigration will play a decisive role in shaping the nation's future.
It is clear that strategic reform within the Fine Gael party, as well as a shift in focus to right-wing solutions to social issues, has resulted in Sinn Féin losing their position in the election. Thus, it seems evident that Fine Gael will likely get the most seats, and will look to work again with Fianna Fáil and another small party to form Ireland’s next government.
Image: Wikipedia Commons
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