Is Two Party Politics Back?

As of recent, both the Tories and Labour have been climbing their way back to top. Whether due to the strong performance displayed at the Conservative party Conference or Burnham experiencing the last embers of his political honeymoon, recent polling activity suggests a tentative recovery in support for the traditional two-party duopoly. Yet whether this signals a permanent return to dominance of the big two remains uncertain, as it may just be that the current rate of voter volatility has

gradually leaned towards the favour of both Labour and the Tories.

Since Burnham became PM, Labour’s popularity has grown in the polls; after his first week in office, Labour had risen to 28%, overtaking Reform at 24%. Burnham’s strategy in governance has proved itself more appealing compared to his predecessors, focussing on implementing policies that improved the day-to-day of individuals and businesses. Policies like reinstating the £2 bus fare cap, scrapping VAT on energy bills and introducing new technical education programmes for young people have shown how effective Burnham has been by targeting highly recognisable economic issues.

The minor party surge of early 2026 was largely a symptom of voter uncertainty;

Burnham's leadership led parties that previously peaked began to lose their momentum. By apologising for Starmer's stance on Gaza and offering policies that targeted the current cost of living, Burnham was able to regain a substantial amount of Labour to Green defects. Similarly, the Tories have faced modest polling recovery being second on 22 percent, six points behind Labour and three points ahead of Reform. Additionally, this has marked the first time that the Tories have had a lead over Reform of three points or more since January 2025.

Recent electoral activity suggests that British politics has entered an era of sustained instability whereby the aim is no longer to secure dominance, but to navigate an increasingly fragmented electorate.

The underlying pattern of voter volatility reveals the fragmented nature of the electorate,

whereby voters are willing to change their vote based on their satisfaction rather than being committed to one party. In addition, Reform's ongoing scandals over donations and business dealings have contributed to the party's loss in popularity, resulting in former Reform defects fleeing back to the Tories. However, such occurrences should not undermine the significance of the recent “Badenoch bounce”, named to describe the aftermath of the Tories party conference, where Badenoch promised to reform inheritance tax and end the £100,000 earnings cap on childcare. This sudden bounce, helped to further draw back Conservative to Reform defects.

It is not without doubt that there has been a return in two party politics, however this return remains gradual and quite likely to change, as the nature of party politics has been throughout this year. Although the FPTP system is known for its role in maintaining

the dominance of the two leading parties, it appears to have effectively broken down under the weight of modern multi-party politics. As seen in earlier elections, because British voters are now fractured across five or more competitive parties, FPTP has produced unpredictable and warped results whereby parties have secured up to 90% of a council’s seats on a minority of the vote. With the UK operating under a multi-party electorate and a two-party electoral system, it is unlikely for the ‘winner-takes-all’ system to ensure a permanent return in two party politics.

The psychological dynamics underpinning the current political world are more fragile than ever. Despite the resurgence of two-party politics and the structural

advantages afforded by FPTP, the complete collapse of smaller parties has yet to

materialise. Whether two parties can dominate elections without permanently eliminating competition from other parties remains an open question.

Overall, temporary recoveries in polling should not be mistaken for a structural return to two party politics. Although FPTP continues to advantage larger parties, growing voter volatility and fragmentations suggest the political landscape remains far from stable. Moreover, the persistence from smaller parties throughout the year demonstrates that their decline cannot be seen as long term. Instead, recent electoral activity suggests that British politics has entered an era of sustained instability whereby the aim is no longer to secure dominance, but to navigate an increasingly fragmented electorate.

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