Labour's Next Chapter Unity or Power Struggle

By Charles Wawn

Last month signalled a permanent shift in the future power dynamics of the Labour party. On May 14, then Health Secretary Wes Streeting resigned, having told Prime Minister Keir Starmer the previous day that he had lost confidence in his leadership. That evening, Josh Simons, a former minister and ally of the Prime Minister, announced he would step down as MP for Makerfield to make way for Andy Burnham, Mayor of Greater Manchester, to replace him. On the social media platform “X”, he explained he wanted to let Andy Burnham “fight to re-enter Parliament, and if elected, drive the change our country is crying out for.” Burnham’s subsequent selection as the Labour candidate for Makerfield, after previously failing to do so in the Gorton and Denton by-election earlier this year, makes the constituency on the outskirts of Greater Manchester the most powerful in the history of the country. Were Burnham to win and become an MP again, he would be able to formally start collecting support from other Labour MPs to mount a leadership challenge against Keir Starmer.

Both men are very ambitious individuals who can point to a record of delivery in their respective portfolios and the declining confidence in Starmer’s leadership and Burnham’s admission that he will run in a leadership election if one is triggered turns the Makerfield by-election into an election for another election. Burnham is not only more popular than Streeting amongst Labour members by a country mile but has also outlined his well–founded political worldview, dubbed ‘Manchesterism’, which places the blame for Britain’s rising inequality and economic stagnation principally on deindustrialisation, privatisation and deregulation. Though Streeting may pride himself on his Blairite style pragmatism, his support within the party is dwarfed by Burnham and Burnham’s economically interventionist Manchesterism, which appeal strongly to Labour MPs and members in the soft left. Therefore, it would be sensible for Streeting to maintain a good relationship if he wishes to remain influential in shaping government policy.

Overall, Burnham has the upper hand intellectually and electorally. Time and time again he has aptly articulated the unfairness that people feel from an economic and political system that has neglected much of the country. In 2023, he complained of people in the North of England being treated as “second-class citizens” when the Northern segment of HS2 was cancelled. His time as mayor, which has seen higher than average economic growth in Manchester and a reduction in rough sleeping, is testimony to an economically interventionist approach that improves the lives of the most vulnerable whilst continuing to attract private sector investment to the region.

But rhetoric is only one part of electoral success. As Prime Minister, he would immediately be served a smorgasbord of challenges: how to resolve Britain's economic rump, how to manage potential adversaries like Streeting and the would-be ousted Starmer, and how to reverse Reform’s lead in the polls. 

Though Streeting may pride himself on his Blairite style pragmatism, his support within the party is dwarfed by Burnham and Burnham’s economically interventionist Manchesterism, which appeal strongly to Labour MPs and members in the soft left.

A Burnham–Farage faceoff at the next general election would make for one of the most surprising political turnarounds. Neither man was an MP before the last election, as Burnham left Parliament in 2017 to become mayor and Farage became an MP for the first time in 2024. By contrast, both Starmer and his predecessor Rishi Sunak have been. But a prerequisite of winning an election is to have a united party that projects the discipline and readiness to govern.

Indeed, both men have had to focus on winning over the more sceptical sides of the Labour party and the conventional Labour voter base. Burnham has distanced himself from his more pro-immigration stances in the past and more recently said that net migration “needs to fall further”, signalling that he will not make any significant departure from the government’s programme to significantly reduce net migration. 

On fiscal policy, Streeting has voiced his support for equalising capital gains tax with income tax, describing the initiative as a “wealth tax that works,” whereas Burnham has sought to reassure markets of his fiscal credibility. A spokesperson for Burnham claimed that he “supports the current fiscal rules” and that he recognises that Britain faces high debt.  However, either man would still be faced with the challenge of high borrowing costs and a public impatient for public services and the cost of living to improve. It is easy for supporters of Burnham or Streeting to gamble on their preferred candidate winning and rescuing Labour from the jaws of defeat at the next general election, but the mountain of political and structural challenges facing Labour has no easy solution.

The next Labour leader will inherit a divided party and a widely disliked government. That person would need to act fast to unite Labour and decide how to manage relations with the runner–up in the leadership race and other party heavyweights, including former Deputy Prime Minister Angela Rayner, Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood, and Energy Secretary Ed Miliband. To grow support for the hollowed–out Labour voter base, the leadership would need a combination of quick wins in the delivery of policy and a clear explanation of where Labour has failed in government. However, Burnham would be advantageous in this regard, enjoying far more support amongst party members to be leader than Starmer, Rayner or Streeting. Simultaneously, the leader cannot depart too substantially from the manifesto without inviting criticisms of lacking democratic legitimacy. This could be resolved through an early general election to gain a mandate for an amended Labour agenda, but a prerequisite of this would be a boost in popularity during a honeymoon period which is likely to be very short if it even exists. Even so, there are no easy options for Labour ahead. Neither charisma nor buzzwords like Burnham’s ‘Manchesterism’ or Streeting’s “new special relationship” will resolve Labour and Britain’s woes if they are not complimented with substance.

Image: The Telegraph