“Let Keir be Keir”: The Downing Street hunt for a Red October

Copenhagen Airport: The Prime Minister descends G-GBNI, a Titan Airways A321neo operated exclusively for the UK Government. This not the British Airways aircraft he charted to travel to India. Image: Flickr/No10.

Every time a landing British Airways aircraft is 1000ft above the ground, the pilots on board call out three things: Stable, visual, I have control. The procedure, known as a 'monitored approach', is unique to the airline, and re-emphasises that the landing pilot has ensured the aircraft is stable, that they are in control of it, and that they have a sense of direction of where they are landing.

The callout stems from the idea that a high workload can quickly disorientate pilots. Hence when it comes time to manually land the jet, pilots run the risk of being unfamiliar with the wider view out of the window, and thus lose their sense of direction. 

Earlier this week, as the Prime Minister’s chartered British Airways 777 hunkered down over the smoggy Mumbai sunrise, he probably was thinking along similar lines to the pilots. 

Whether Starmer has a stability, clarity of view and control similar to the pilots up front remains to be seen. But the last few weeks demonstrate one thing clearly—he has drawn his battlelines, especially to counter Reform UK. In other words, if it was a turquoise summer, Number 10 will hope for a red October. The final quarter of the year is always something of an awkward double act for a governing UK party, with a unique tango between party conference and the budget. The former is the political stage, the latter the governing. Leaders have to make both work.

From a clarity perspective, Starmer’s conference speech clearly demonstrated that he has taken a more progressive turn. Amidst the rising threat of a soft-left challenge in the form of Andy Burnham, as well as many bruising briefings against No 10 in the media, it would appear that Starmer’s tilt is a reaction to his sheer unpopularity in the party. 

But events are not always as they seem. 

When anti-McSweeney briefings came to the fore at the apex of the July welfare revolt, many called it a “death rattle”. But instead, the Chief of Staff was said to be focusing on a refinement of strategy, communications and resetting Number 10. Alongside Starmer, who was described as "thinking deeply", the pair began to plot the 'next phase' that would define the PM's politics. Weeks later, the change in tack became clear at a Chequers away-day. Following one of the most bruising parliamentary seasons on record, Starmer invited his Cabinet to the Chilterns mansion. The official readout talked about AI and science—but the real conversation was strategy. As briefed to the Spectator, out of the away day came one clear phrase.

“Let Keir be Keir”.

Few around the Prime Minister deny that he has progressive instincts. He remains adamant that clean energy is a benefit to the country. He remains committed to workers rights legislation, overruled his Chief of Staff on the two-child benefit cap, and has chosen to recognise a Palestinian state to the distaste of both the US and Israeli governments. Yet much of the government’s first year saw this stifled by the overarching yearn for pragmatism—which has failed to placate the PM’s critics. 

The first public signs of a strategy shift were evident days before party conference in a London venue just minutes from Downing Street, where the “Global Progress Action Summit” was held. Despite the generic title, the conference was apparently Morgan McSweeney's project, who has sought to build a global coalition of victorious progressive leaders in the hopes of sharing ideas and retaining power—and keeping Starmer front and centre. It marks a significant change from 2023, where the then-Leader of the Opposition dragged a reluctant McSweeney to a progressive conference in the USA. He hated every minute of it. 

But to find out what Starmerism means beyond the lectern, it is best not to look at what is said in government—but what is done in government. 

The rebuilding of the No 10 policy unit, just like the BA pilot callout, comes in threes: public services, the economy, and communities/immigration. The new threefold structure no doubt demonstrates an internal acknowledgement of what the PM’s redefined ideology really means in practice. This is complimented by the fact that the PM’s litany of media appearances and speeches in recent weeks lack any mention of the missions, ‘first steps’ or pledges made. 

This is demonstrative of a growing tinge of radicalism and governing ruthlessness that has infused Downing Street—superseding political loyalty. The shuffling of Shabana Mahmood and Pat McFadden into heavy domestic briefs demonstrated this from the ministerial side. From an advisory side, the broad departures of personally loyal aides and their replacement with more experienced professional demonstrates the implementation of a similar strategy.  Environmental SpAd Carys Roberts and Culture/Equalities SpAd Mureena Lula have both left the policy unit with the latter’s departure is seen as particularly damaging to the Number 10 operation—one aide briefed to the Times that “she took over and she calmed down an extremely dangerous political area for Morgan”. Moreover, Paul Ovenden, one of Starmer’s longest serving communication aides and his chief “attack dog” departed, as did long-term Director of Communications Stephanie Driver, despite attempts by McSweeney and the Prime Minister to get her to stay.

Joining are ex-TBI alumni Axel Heitmueller and Harvey Redgrave, with the latter heading up the day-to-day policy work and immigration/communities team. The former will lead the public services team, whilst the third strand (Economics) will be run by Baroness Shafik, who joined in September.

The growing radicalism does increasingly extend to the budget as well.  The Act II of Starmer’s more bellicose stance, it proves the first test of whether the government can truly move the dial—a fact which is not lost on any next door in Number 11. Frustration over leaked (untrue) tax measures, as well as the OBR’s course-correcting forecasts is continuing to grow. Various measures that once seemed radical, such as cutting the number of OBR forecasts to one annually, are gaining strength, whilst ways to save tax expenditure are growing. A recent IPPR paper on taxing central bank pure rent profits and slowing quantitative tightening (now happening) acknowledged the input of Ravinder Athwal, who left as Downing Street’s economic advisor just weeks ago. The ONS’s embarrassing £3bn VAT error this past week no doubt incensed the radically-inclined even further. 

Within the Treasury team, Reeves has also rebuilt her team after a summer of reflection. Torsten Bell, a key Labour thinker and widely-regarded starlet of the party, has been promoted to help with budget preparations. Ben Nunn and Matt Pound, both Starmer loyalists working for Reeves in a political capacity, have had their responsibilities bolstered, whilst the Prime Minister’s Official Spokesman David Pares (a civil servant) has returned to the Treasury to head up communications. What is more, Reeves’ long-time Chief of Staff Katie Martin has regained responsibility for Treasury-business relations, a momentous task she successfully worked on with now-No 10 aides prior to the election. None of that mentions the remarkably late budget (the latest since 1995), which gives the government the near maximum run-up to clear the political high jump.

The quest to define Starmerism will rely just as much upon the crosswind of real world events as it will the many speeches, interviews, meeting and memos that a political No 10 team can cook up. Alongside an insurgent Green Party, jubilant Liberal Democrats and a growing Reform UK, it is fanciful to say that the Prime Minister’s political purpose can exist only as speech rhetoric or bottom-rung niceties. No doubt he has put the structural changes in place required for such a more bellicose, delivery-focused strategy shift, but he cannot afford to fall for the complex of the Miliband years—tainted by orthodoxy, taunted by radicalism, and tormented wherever he goes.

Put it this way: as the Prime Minister deboarded at Terminal 5 on Friday morning having returned from India, he likely passed many a sign with the classic BA motto: To fly. To serve. 

It’s no “Change” slogan, but whenever he jets off next, the new-found Starmerite will probably find himself thinking like a British Airways pilot once again. 

Image: No 10/Flickr