Powerbroker: Democratic Party politics, the power of the black vote, and the man who could decide it all in 2028

By Isaac Tunley

Although the U.S. presidential primary season is over a year away, media speculation has intensified over who will run for and win the Democratic nomination. Presidential hopefuls such as Gavin Newsom and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez are already battling for media attention, funding from political action committees and donors, and momentum in name recognition and polling. However, Presidential hopefuls ought to be aware of the sole man who could make or break their campaign. Representative Jim Clyburn’s influence on the Democratic presidential primaries is immense, strongly showcasing the nature of the Democratic primary and the increasing salience of Black voters in Democratic primaries that candidates must win over.

Clyburn is the long-serving and sole Democratic congressman from South Carolina, first elected in 1992 with numerous stints in party leadership, including as the Majority Whip. This grants Clyburn a very unique and powerful position in Democratic politics, having both immense seniority and respect among the party leadership while offering a critical connection to Black voters, especially in South Carolina, who make up a significant proportion of the Democratic primary base across the nation. Clyburn’s endorsement therefore matters to thousands of voters, which he demonstrated profoundly in the 2020 Democratic presidential primaries.

In the primaries, Joe Biden’s campaign was dead in the water, failing to come close to winning the primaries in Iowa, New Hampshire, and Nevada, an extremely underwhelming set of results given Biden’s ‘Scranton Joe’ working-class support and name recognition as a former Vice President. Biden’s campaign was criticised for lacklustre grassroots support, energy, and turnout in rallies and speeches. With just days to go before the South Carolina primary, however, Clyburn endorsed Biden. Subsequently, Biden won the South Carolina primary in a landslide by more than 30% over his nearest competitor. Such a crushing victory dramatically shifted momentum to Biden’s campaign, resulting in candidates Amy Klobuchar and Pete Buttigieg endorsing him as they dropped out of the race, consolidating Biden’s support among the party base, and ultimately contributing to Biden’s landslide the week after in winning 10 of 15 states on Super Tuesday, cementing Biden’s status as the inevitable nominee.

presidential hopefuls will need to win the critical endorsement of one South Carolinian, Jim Clyburn, who may make or break their campaign and shape the entire 2028 election.

Though Clyburn’s endorsement was not the sole factor in Biden’s unprecedented turnaround, it is clear that Clyburn contributed massively to Biden’s victory in consolidating the Black vote behind him, which had begun to waver after Biden’s early losses. Strikingly, according to the NBC exit poll, 61% of voters stated that Clyburn’s endorsement was a factor in their vote in the primary. Of that 61%, 57% voted for Biden. 56% of voters in the South Carolina primary were Black, 61% of whom voted for Biden as opposed to just 33% of White voters who voted for Biden. Such momentum carried over into Super Tuesday, where Biden won Black voters by a large margin of 40% and White voters by a much smaller margin of 8% over Bernie Sanders.

Clyburn’s influence on Black voters makes him a powerbroker, and the position of his state of South Carolina as the first state in the Democratic presidential primaries from 2028 onwards has overwhelming ramifications on who will succeed in 2028. Democratic candidates will need to seek the endorsement of Clyburn, but also more widely seek to win the support of the Black vote, who saved Biden’s campaign and broke many others, particularly the long-shot candidacy of South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg.

Buttigieg captured unprecedented levels of enthusiasm in the 2020 Democratic primaries with a campaign centred on generational change, grassroots support, and democratic values. This catapulted Buttigieg to win the Iowa caucuses and place second in New Hampshire, two states that are predominantly White. Buttigieg’s campaign collapsed, however, in South Carolina, where he came in 4^th with just 8% of the vote. Just 3% of Black voters in South Carolina backed ‘Mayor Pete’. Perhaps because of his inexperience, which made him seem like a weaker general-election candidate. Black Democratic voters have historically tended to take a more pragmatic approach to elections, prioritising electability.  Furthermore, Buttigieg was not trusted by the Black community, while Biden generally was. In June 2019, Buttigieg had to deal with the fatal shooting of Eric Logan, a Black man, in South Bend by a White police officer, putting Buttigieg under heavy scrutiny for heightened racial tensions under his watch in the South Bend police department. The shooting also meant he missed a critical event to boost his name recognition and credentials in South Carolina. The event in question was Representative Jim Clyburn’s annual “world-famous fish fry”.

Overall, the 2020 U.S. Democratic presidential primary cycle revealed the increased influence of Black voters in U.S. elections, both in the primary by rallying behind Biden’s ailing campaign and in the general election too, with unprecedented turnout among Black voters making the difference in key swing states, particularly Georgia. In the 2028 Democratic presidential primary, the winning candidate will certainly have to win the trust and overwhelming support of Black voters, as has every Democratic candidate for the past few decades. Presidential hopefuls may try to home this in, alongside their attack lines, money raising, and policy development. Ultimately, however, presidential hopefuls will need to win the critical endorsement of one South Carolinian, Jim Clyburn, who may make or break their campaign and shape the entire 2028 election.

Image: The White House