Protests in Iran: the path forward

By Lucas Nahal

In the last few weeks, the Islamic Republic regime has undergone its gravest challenge since the revolution of 1979. On December 28 2025, a small group of shopkeepers and merchants in Tehran went on strike to protest Iran’s worsening economic conditions. By the advent of the New Year, the demonstrations had spread to almost every major city, featuring a massive coalition of students, merchants and the previously dormant Iranian middle class. It is estimated that around 10 million Iranians took to the streets, and some sources put the death toll as high as 16,000. Past protests in Iran had been almost exclusive to the student population so the awakening of the middle class has amplified the scale and breadth of the regime’s opposition. 

Due to the overwhelming counter force deployed by the regime, the protests have mostly subsided and the immediate threat to the government has been quashed but tension and questions about the viability of the regime linger. To understand the structure and potential weakness of the Ayatollah’s regime, the significance of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) cannot be understated. The organisation operates a parallel military which answers directly to the Supreme Leader and controls large swathes of the economy. Most experts agree that the sanctity of the regime depends almost exclusively on the loyalty of the IRGC as it is remains uniquely capable of crushing protests or deposing the Ayatollah. However, throughout this crisis, there has been no indication that the IRGC is flinching in its support for the Supreme Leader. Consequently, considering their extensive domination over most aspects of Iranian society, it is unclear if there is any feasible path left for the protestors to take down their government.

The other highly consequential actor in this crisis is President Trump as he has repeatedly expressed his willingness to intervene on the side of the protestors. After the enormous strategic success that was achieved during the US’ targeted strikes on Iran’s key nuclear facilities, the president feels emboldened to violate Iranian sovereignty once again to further cripple the regime. Despite President Trump announcing “help is on the way”, pledging he would “Make Iran Great Again” on January 13 2026, no offensive action has taken place and as the scale of the protests continue to dwindle the window of opportunity is rapidly closing. While there is the possibility that American intervention could be decisive in toppling the Ayatollah, it could in turn actually have the adverse effect and give the regime a broader mandate to crush the opposition.

As of yet, the Iranian government has admitted that over 3000 people have died and while the true numbers are significantly higher, it stands to reason that any evidence of foreign intervention will only embolden the regime in its decimation of these protests. An American strike on Iranian soil would only provide a more concrete excuse to continue the slaughtering of civilians. At the end of the day, the immediate future for Iran seems bleak as there is almost no outcome that could result in the collapse of the regime and the birth of a stable democracy. Despite this, the problems that the Iranian state is facing have not been resolved: the Iranian rial is now equivalent to 0.00 Euros, Tehran is facing acute water shortages, and the state of the country’s infrastructure is dire. 

Most autocracies reach a tipping point where force can no longer be the substitute for successful governance, and Iran appears to be teetering at that point. Political scientist Timur Kuran states “dictatorships look stable until they suddenly aren’t,” in relation to Assad’s Syria among others, and Iran could certainly be next. Therefore, one may look at the situation on the ground in Iran and assume that there is no likelihood of revolution, but history has shown, even in the case of the Islamic revolution, that repressive governments can fall like a house of cards when conditions are severe enough. 

Most would agree that the Iranian government should face consequences for its brutal crackdown on civilians but there are few mechanisms left for the international community to influence the regime’s behaviour. As Iran’s closest geopolitical ally, it is likely that Russia at the United Nations would block any measures targeting the Iranian regime and the West has already placed heavy sanctions on Iran to the point where there are no more economic levers left to pull. Therefore, Iran can continue to act with impunity as anything short of military action, which in turn carries major humanitarian implications, will not be capable of stopping their grave human rights abuses. It seemed like the walls were closing in on the Ayatollah, as he’d even planned his escape to Moscow like Assad did just over a year ago, but the tactics employed by the state were sufficient in limiting the immediate risk to the regime. While there is seemingly no immediate path out of theocracy for Iran, its internal struggles ensure that the population remain agitated and in favour of a departure from the status quo.

Ultimately, the recent Iranian protest movements have been borne out of significant moments such as the 2022 protests, following the death of Mahsa Amini in police custody and the recent economic cataclysm. While the sparks that lit both of these movements seem to have burned out, there is always a chance that this next one will ignite a successful revolution. 

Image: Getty Images