Putin's "Oreshnik": A Dangerous Escalation or Kremlin Propaganda?

By Oliver Ansell-Hodges

In the early hours of November 21st, the central Ukrainian city of Dnipro was struck by a deadly Russian missile salvo, widely believed to have targeted the city’s industrial southwest.

The strike injured three people and damaged critical infrastructure, with immediate analysis of the weapon leading to Ukrainian accusations that Russia had deployed the first intercontinental ballistic missile in an active conflict in history. Anonymous Western officials soon disputed this claim, and an unannounced televised address by Russian President Vladimir Putin confirmed the use of an intermediate-range hypersonic ballistic missile on the battlefield, codenamed ‘Oreshnik’.

Moscow’s primary aim was not to create a militaristic setback for Ukraine, with satellite imagery circulating on Russian telegram channels showing the Pivdenmash aerospace manufacturing plant sustained little damage. Instead, the Kremlin attempted to escalate a series of ongoing threats – the Russian ‘red lines’ - against perceived Western interference in the conflict.

The deployment of the Oreshnik missile represents yet another Russian attempt to deter Western allies from their continued support for Ukraine. By attacking Dnipro, Russia directly responds to the US decision to permit the use of ATACMS, by Ukraine, on targets inside Russia itself. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov warned that the long-awaited ATACMS decision risked escalating tensions between Russia and NATO, saying “We will be taking this as a qualitatively new phase of the Western war against Russia. And we will react accordingly”.

Russian claims that the Oreshnik can reach London in 17 minutes, as reiterated by state media outlet RIA Novosti, demonstrate the continued Russian propaganda pressure applied to Western states, further reinforced by immediate Ukrainian fears of an ICBM strike. In defiance of Russian claims of a game-changing missile, preliminary assessment of the weapon used in the Dnipro strike revealed Putin’s hypersonic terror to be a cannibalised version of the conventional RS-26 Rubezh missile, with defence analysts at Oslo University estimating over 90% of the Oreshnik’s parts to be taken from the Rubezh.

In targeting Dnipro, Putin seeks to remind NATO leaders that their financial and military support for Ukraine is not without consequences – his ‘red lines’, however, have been breached on multiple occasions – from the deployment of MiG-29 and F-16 fighter jets to Patriot Missile systems, and ATACMS, HIMARS and Storm Shadows. These breaches ultimately faced little meaningful pushback, beyond disapproving rhetoric from Kremlin spokespeople Dmitry Peskov and Maria Zakharova.

As Western media headlines warn of major nuclear conflict, it is worth dispelling the fictional notion of the ‘unpredictable Russia’. The notion, pushed by Putin’s irresponsible rhetoric, has been seized upon by right-wing populist elements within Western democracies as evidence of the need for peace in Ukraine. Both America’s MAGA movement and Britain’s Reform Party promote a quick settlement, undermining Ukrainian territorial integrity and sovereignty over the four occupied oblasts and Crimea.

Such fears over a spiralling nuclear confrontation between Russia and NATO have pushed the idea of Ukrainian neutrality, namely that Ukraine must commit to not joining NATO or hosting foreign military infrastructure. In the face of this, Oreshnik’s use can be seen as a continuation of Kremlin posturing with Russia weaponizing unfounded fears over nuclear warfare in order to isolate Ukraine on the international stage. It is worth noting that Iskander and Kinzhal missiles – both of which have been actively used by Russian forces throughout the full-scale invasion – are capable of carrying nuclear warheads.

Putin attempts to convey an image of Russian strength on the battlefield. By launching an experimental missile at a time when Russia advances in Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia, and continues in its Kursk counteroffensive, the Kremlin wishes to perpetuate a narrative of Ukraine’s inevitable fall – seizing on ‘conflict fatigue’ amongst the US and Europe – and force through a settlement on terms favourable to Moscow.

At a time when the NATO-Ukraine relationship has become increasingly undermined by the election of Donald Trump, and where battlefield tactics have been replaced by diplomatic engagement, the Oreshnik strike on Dnipro serves as a desperate attempt by Russia to exacerbate cracks in the Western support apparatus before a much-anticipated peace settlement is negotiated.

Image: Wikimedia Commons