Reform UK's forgotten army

By Stephen Dowse

It would not be an exaggeration to say that Reform UK has been the ghost haunting Keir Starmer’s premiership and, unfortunately for Labour, that ghost materialised during the recent 2026 English local elections, with Reform UK winning over 1450 council seats while Labour lost over 1200 council seats. It’s very easy to assume that the people who are voting for Reform UK are disillusioned Conservative Party voters and right-wing political activists; however, this does not reflect the true backbone of Reform UK’s support. Rather, Farage has been able to mobilise an invisible army of disillusioned UK voters to support his party on the basis that Reform UK are the only party which can bring real change to the UK.

Who are Reform UK’s supporters?

First, it would be wrong to pretend that many of Reform UK’s supporters were not disillusioned Conservatives and right-wing political activists. A YouGov poll from September 2025 indicates that Conservative voters (based on people who voted Conservative in 2024) are more likely to believe that Reform UK would do a good job of running a UK government than the national average. Additional polling has also suggested that these Conservative voters are less likely to view Reform UK policies as racist compared to the national average, and there is more of a policy overlap between these two parties. It therefore becomes easy to assume Reform UK’s support stems from attracting these disillusioned Conservative Party voters.

However, that is not the full story.

When studying the 2026 local election results, it becomes rapidly apparent that Reform UK has not just been gaining Conservative seats. Evidence for this comes from multiple sources. First, we can study the general results of the 2026 local elections, which show that “Reform UK has made big gains at the expense of Labour and the Conservatives in English council elections”, according to analysis conducted by the BBC. This is further signified by a diagram, accessible via the BBC article, which shows that Reform UK gains are spread out across both traditional Labour and Conservative regions, showing that people, across the political spectrum, are turning to Reform UK. Further evidence may be collected by analysing who the Labour Party lost votes to during the local elections. Analysis noted by Financial Times’ journalists signifies that Labour lost support fairly evenly across political parties rather than to just “one party or another.” This highlights how Labour voters are also shifting across the political spectrum to Reform UK rather than to parties more closely politically aligned to Labour, such as the Liberal Democrats.

Disillusioned voters, from all walks of life, are willing to engage with Reform UK as it is the clearest vehicle for any kind of change in Britian, even if some of them despise the leadership.

This is surprising given that 2024 Labour voters, and the average UK voter, tend to have a poor impression of Reform UK. YouGov polling for Nigel Farage’s popularity suggests that 51% of the UK actively dislike him, compared to the 29% who actively like him. Furthermore, based on a September 2025 poll, 49% of the UK population think Reform UK would do a poor job of running the country (compared to the 24% who think they’d do a good job and the 16% who think they’d do an average job). This only increases for people who voted for Labour in 2024, with 75% of these voters thinking Reform UK would do a bad job of running the government. Finally, based on an October 2025 poll, 47% of the UK population thinks Reform UK are a racist party (compared to the 36% who think they aren’t). For 2024 Labour voters, this increases to 70% thinking that Reform UK are a racist party.

This displays a fundamental disconnect and distrust between Reform UK, 2024 Labour voters and, to a lesser degree, the average UK voter. Due to this, we must ask the question of why 2024 Labour voters, and the wider British electorate, are moving towards Reform UK?

The demand for any kind of change:

If you watch any interview with Reform UK voters, from either traditional Labour Party or traditional Conservative Party areas, there is one word that appears more than any other: “change”. People from all walks of life show a consistent demand for change in the British political settlement, which has become especially pronounced after Starmer, the man who asked voters to “vote for change”, failed to offer an exciting vision for the future of Britain. A November 2025 poll completed by IPSOS indicates that 50% of the UK public want radical change in the UK, with another 37% wanting moderate change in the UK. This is further reflected in opinion polls, which show disappointment with how the UK is currently being run. For example, as of May 2026, opinion polls state that 75% of the UK population thinks the Labour government have done a poor job of running the UK economy, with this only falling to 62% for 2024 Labour voters. Trends are similar to other polls on issues like housing and defence. 

But why turn to Reform UK for change?

Reform UK, due to highly effective political campaigning, have been able to position themselves as the UK’s most accessible and omnipresent vehicle for change. This is shown in their campaigning with slogans like “Britain is Broken” and “Britain needs Reform”, giving explicit recognition of the need to change the British political landscape. Next, Reform UK are vocal with a September 2025 poll suggesting 44% of the UK population believe Reform UK are setting the UK’s political agenda, with “don’t know,” being the next most common answer at 34%.This was only accelerated by the strong presence of both Reform UK and Nigel Farage during the 2026 local elections campaign. This has built up momentum behind the Reform UK brand and makes them look more like the future of change in UK politics to British voters. Finally, Reform UK’s policy pledges cover a wide spectrum of political demands, from reducing immigration to removing tuition fees and fixing the NHS. Therefore, the people who want to see change in the British political landscape will find something they can connect with within Reform UK’s policies. Compare this to other political parties offering populist change, like the UK Green Party, who offer a less broad policy base and is seeing less success compared to Reform UK. Therefore, disillusioned voters, from all walks of life, are willing to engage with Reform UK as it is the clearest vehicle for any kind of change in Britian, even if some of them despise the leadership.

Overall, when reflecting on Reform UK’s electoral support base, it’s essential to distinguish between people voting for Reform UK due to their political beliefs and people voting for Reform UK due to them seeing Reform UK as the vehicle to bring change to the UK. If the Labour Party wishes to overcome Reform UK’s ‘invisible army’, it’s essential that they create an ambitious new plan for change in the UK and deliver on this plan before the next general election.

Image: Gage Skidmore / Wikimedia Commons