Runcorn and Helsby: a premonition of reform-ageddon or a wake up call for Starmer?

By Ehsan Ibrahim

Nigel Farage celebrates victory in the Runcorn and Helsby by-election. Image: Anthony Devlin

While 23 councils and six directly elected mayoralties held elections across more than 1,600 seats in England on Thursday 1st May, a far more consequential event began to unfold: a by-election in Runcorn and Helsby, triggered by the conviction and imprisonment of former MP Mike Amesbury for assaulting a constituent. In a major blow to Sir Keir Starmer’s Labour Party, defeat was conceded in the early hours of Friday 2nd May to Reform UK’s candidate, Sarah Pochin, by just six votes—making it the most tightly contested parliamentary by-election in British history. Described by Labour insiders as a campaign balanced on a "knife-edge," the result has sent shockwaves through SW1.

Carved out during the 2024 boundary review, Runcorn and Helsby was intended to be another reliable cog in Labour’s northern machine. Made up of parts of the former Weaver Vale and Halton seats, the constituency stretches from the industrial sprawl of Runcorn, a Labour stronghold steeped in working-class tradition, to the leafier, more

Conservative-leaning village of Helsby. At the general election, Mike Amesbury cruised to victory with an almost 15,000-vote majority, cementing the seat as a so-called “fortress” for Labour. But behind that comfortable cushion lay a shifting political landscape: economic discontent, declining faith in public services, and growing frustration with Westminster, all simmering under the surface.

Amidst all the furore and behind the drama of polling days and election counts lay three flashpoint issues that Reform masterfully weaponised: immigration, economic insecurity and a sense of local decline. Nowhere was this more evident than in the anger in a local debate on asylum seekers being housed in The Daresbury Park Hotel. Reform UK repeatedly claimed that “750 illegal boat migrants” were being housed in the area, a figure widely shared on social media despite official data showing only 345 asylum seekers across the relevant local authorities. The narrative stuck. For many voters, perception outweighed fact.

Cost-of-living pressures added to the discontent. Proposed cuts to the winter fuel allowance hit especially hard in a constituency with a large and ageing population. Pensioners, once considered a dependable Labour bloc, voiced growing resentment over being “left behind” by a party they felt no longer represented them. Compounding this disillusionment was a visible sense of local decline. Runcorn’s town centre—once a point of pride was increasingly seen as a symbol of neglect, its high street lined with empty units and charity shops. The message from Reform UK was blunt: Labour had taken places like Runcorn for granted.

Against this backdrop, the candidates reflected two very different approaches to the crisis. Sarah Pochin, a former Conservative councillor turned Reform UK moderate, framed herself as a voice of common sense on immigration and local renewal. Labour’s Karen Shore, a local councillor and teacher, struggled to regain control of the narrative, particularly after being accused of downplaying residents’ concerns about asylum seekers.

While the Runcorn and Helsby result will undoubtedly be picked apart by pundits searching for national meaning, it’s worth resisting the temptation to overstate its significance. Yes, the issues raised are real—frustrations over immigration, the cost of living, and local neglect cannot be ignored. But this was also a constituency suddenly thrust into the glare of national attention, with outside narratives flooding in and a scandal creating a vacuum of trust. Despite the noise, I remain confident that the government, if given the time and space to act, can begin to reverse the damage caused by a decade and a half of short-term, deconstructive policymaking. This wasn’t a final verdict, it was a sharp reminder, a reminder which I am confident the government remains cognizant of.

Image: Anthony Devlin / Getty Images