The politics of caution: Can Starmer's steady approach to leadership hold?

Thus far, Keir Starmer’s domestic leadership has been defined by caution; however, it is increasingly unclear whether this technocratic approach to steady the ship can hold in the face of Labour’s bleeding electoral support. With Labour’s popularity at record lows, Starmer may have no choice but to embrace a bolder leadership style. His government is capable of such change, with Starmer being a decisive global statesman. However, the question now is whether the Prime Minister believes it is right to maintain his cautious approach in the choppy political waters of the 2020s, or if restraint is too great a political risk.

Since sweeping the Tories aside at the 2024 general election, Starmer has elected to follow a cautious leadership approach. His technocratic background as Director of Public Prosecutions may inform this approach: rather than quickly enacting sweeping reforms of government institutions, Starmer’s government has adopted a tentative 'Ming Vase Strategy', opting to avoid wide-reaching reforms. Radical policies on green investment have been dropped, and the government has adopted an economic holding pattern, avoiding major reforms in favour of policy tweaks due to a fear of spooking the markets.

Where the government initially showed courage over welfare reforms, a backbench rebellion caused the legislation to be watered down significantly, and any further action on the policy will have to wait for the result of the Timms review. Starmer signalled this cautious approach before ascending to office, stating in his first address outside Number 10 that his government would “tread more lightly” on voters’ lives. Instead of grandiose, bold, and potentially unrealistic commitments, the government’s mantra has been to work quietly behind the scenes, ending the “era of noisy performance”, broken promises, scandal and ineffectual governance which plagued his predecessors. Whilst this method has admirable intentions, it risks the public perceiving the government as inert, meaning it may need to take more drastic actions to survive.

As a result, Labour’s public support is drastically waning, and to salvage the situation a change of course is needed. Despite winning 412 seats in a landslide only last year, Labour have crashed to 22% in the polls, 12 points behind Reform UK. Moreover, 79% of people were dissatisfied with Starmer’s performance, and 82% were dissatisfied with his government’s actions (UK Opinion Polls | Ipsos). These do not make pretty reading for government strategists. When combined with a September YouGov MRP poll which showed Reform UK winning 311 seats to Labour’s 144 – the Red Wall turning a shade of Reform blue – it is clear that Labour’s current strategy is not working and Starmer’s tactics need to change.

There is also evident discontent from within Labour circles. Starmer’s caution and perceived maintenance of the status quo has seen support from the left of the party slip away to other left-wing alternatives. The Green Party are currently polling at 12%, doubling their support from the previous election, attracting former Labour voters disaffected by Starmer’s caution. Equally, rumours of a leadership challenge from Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham have run rife. If Burnham were to succeed, he would be sure to be bold and take the party further left. Perhaps this threat will be incentive enough for Starmer to release the handbrake.

Evidently, Starmer has seized the initiative on the global stage. He must also do this on the home front; otherwise, his government will quickly find its shelf-life expiring.

There is no question that Starmer is capable of bolder leadership, for he has shown immense courage on the global stage from day one. Starmer has bravely supported Ukraine, flying in the face of the Trump administration’s rhetoric, signing the landmark 100-year pact. He has also effectively managed relations with a White House administration whose diplomacy can charitably be described as erratic, limiting the damage of Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariffs, and stewarding a successful state visit. Whilst his predecessors soured relations with Europe, Starmer has gone a long way to repairing them, implementing a “one in, one out” migrant agreement with President Macron, and negotiating a closer trade deal with the EU. These decisions have established Starmer as a confident statesman abroad, starkly contrasting his more restrained domestic agenda.

Evidently, Starmer has seized the initiative on the global stage. He must also do this on the home front; otherwise, his government will quickly find its shelf-life expiring. If Starmer’s cautious restraint was designed to steady the ship, it now threatens to sink it – unless he finds the courage to chart a new course.

By Josh Wild

Image: Flickr