The US-Russian peace plan: Is Ukraine’s future in jeopardy?

By Charlotte Roff

On 20 November, the US and Russia’s proposal of a 28-point peace plan to end the war in Ukraine was leaked. This document comes at an important stage of the Russia-Ukraine War, as over one million have now been killed as a result of the conflict which will have lasted for four years as of February 2026. Subsequent diplomatic meetings and proposed plans have fostered some hope that President Trump is nearing a peace deal in Ukraine. However, the content of the plan has contributed to ongoing debates about protecting Ukraine’s sovereignty and wider questions about the future of European security.

Despite stating that “Ukraine’s sovereignty will be confirmed”, the plan limits Ukraine’s ability to make military, diplomatic and territorial decisions, removing its right to act as a truly independent nation. The plan caps the Ukrainian Armed Forces at 600,000 personnel, prevents Ukraine from joining NATO and classifies the regions of Crimea, Luhansk, and Donetsk as ‘de facto Russian’. This acts as evidence of Trump’s pro-Russian stance and unreliability as an ally to Ukraine, as the plan does not defend Ukraine’s sovereignty, particularly as it gives up territory which Russian forces do not currently occupy. 

In contrast to the limits placed on Ukrainian freedoms, the plan proposes Russia’s reintegration into the global economy through lifting sanctions, economic cooperation with the US, and an invitation to rejoin the G8. It also absolves Russia of all war crimes committed throughout the war, including targeting civilians, political detentions and sexual violence, as “all parties involved in this conflict will receive full amnesty for their actions”. This proposal would put the fates of the thousands of Ukrainian children who have been separated from their families and relocated to Russia since Russia’s annexation of Crimea in 2014, in jeopardy. 

The plan is therefore revealing in its pro-Russian stance, as despite US involvement it is completely skewed towards the Russian perspective, raising questions about Trump’s diplomatic priorities and his reliability as an ally to Europe.

This notion has been reiterated by Orysia Lutsevych, the Deputy Director of the Russia and Eurasia Programme and Head of the Ukraine Forum at Chatham House, who has argued that “the 28-point plan looks like a brainchild of the Kremlin.”

The implications of the plan for European security and the international order are equally important. The US is presented as a separate entity to NATO, as “a dialogue will be held between Russia and NATO, mediated by the United States.” Despite the founding role of the US in NATO and its central importance in providing troops, resources, and money, this distinction highlights the changing international order and Trump’s desire to step back from NATO. In JD Vance’s speech to the Munich Security Conference in February earlier this year, he highlighted these attitudes, arguing that Europe should be more responsible for its own security and that it relies too heavily on the US. Trump reiterated this perspective in a Truth Social post after the publication of the 28-point plan, in which he suggested that Ukraine and Europe have not shown enough gratitude to the US and have not done enough to end the war. However, the plan is contradictory in this regard, revealing potential tensions between the US and Russian positions, as it prevents European involvement in the peace process, particularly in relation to security guarantees as NATO troops are forbidden in Ukraine. 

As it is heavily focused on business, the deal reveals Trump’s prioritisation of profit over Ukraine’s security. Part of the deal involves $100 billion in frozen Russian assets and $100 billion of European money being used for the reconstruction of Ukraine, of which the US would receive 50% of the profits. The plan also outlines economic cooperation between the US and Russia in terms of energy, natural resources, metal extraction, infrastructure, and artificial intelligence, highlighting the business-centred motivations of the plan, as it is economically favourable to both the US and Russia at the expense of Ukraine’s sovereignty.

Europe has offered a counter-proposal to the peace plan, redrafting the 28-point plan with deletions and changes to its wording. For example, it changes the first point from “Ukraine’s sovereignty will be confirmed” to “Ukraine’s sovereignty will be reconfirmed” and has removed the part which absolves all war crimes. The US and Ukraine have since reduced the 28-point plan to 19 points as part of talks in Geneva. This new draft is not currently public, however it is believed it does not prevent Ukraine’s NATO membership, offers more concrete security guarantees, and removes the clause allowing amnesty for war crimes. 

Russia has refused to accept this deal and threatened to take more Ukrainian territory, after talks with US envoy Steve Witkoff and Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner proved fruitless. Putin has continued to assert his belief that Europe has no desire to end the war. Speaking at the Russia Calling! investment forum, he said: “They put forward demands they know are entirely unacceptable for Russia, and then aim to pin the collapse of the peace process on us.” There are also concerns on the Ukrainian side that the US will continue to be influenced by Russia. A senior official told the Financial Times: “It has happened many times where we had co-ordinated our position with the US and then Witkoff goes to Moscow and, after seeing Putin, Trump puts out a statement that takes us back to square one.”

The future of Ukraine and European security remains precarious, particularly in light of what the 28-point plan reveals about Russian and American priorities in the peace process. The political will across the international community to engage in negotiations provides some hope abo ut Ukraine’s future, however, the Russian position, and Trump’s unreliability as an ally to Ukraine cast doubts on any resolution in the near future.

Image: Trump White House Archived / Flickr