US Midterms: is Trump feeling the heat?

By Vaanya Kalra

US Midterms: Is Trump Feeling the Heat? – Vaanya Kalra

With the November 2026 US midterm elections approaching, Donald Trump faces an

increasingly difficult political battle. Despite his claims of economic success,

declining approval ratings, persistent cost-of-living concerns, and growing opposition

to his policies threaten Republican seats in Congress. However, an unexpected

issue is also emerging as a potential election decider: the expansion of AI data

centres.

The Approval Rating Crisis:

Trump's approval ratings provide perhaps the clearest indication of the difficulties.

facing Republicans. According to Nate Silver's Silver Bulletin, his approval rating

stood at approximately 37% in October, significantly below the 43% recorded at the

equivalent stage of his first term. Joe Biden's approval rating at the same point in his

presidency was approximately 40%. Both presidents subsequently lost control of the

House of Representatives in their respective midterms, suggesting Trump could face

a similar setback.

The greatest source of frustration remains the cost of living. During his 2024

campaign, Trump repeatedly promised to tackle inflation and make America

affordable again. However, groceries, housing, and energy remain expensive, putting

pressure on household budgets. The conflict with Iran has further complicated

matters, disrupting energy supplies and pushing American petrol prices above $4 per

gallon. For working-class Americans, particularly in poorer Republican-leaning

communities, these are not abstract economic statistics but everyday financial

struggles.

This presents a significant problem for Republican senators and representatives,

who must defend their individual records rather than simply rely on Trump's

popularity. Voters who previously supported Trump in the hope of economic

improvement may now turn towards Democratic challengers.

The Iran Factor:

Perhaps the most significant recent blow to Trump's popularity has been the

escalating conflict with Iran. His decision to launch air strikes alongside Israel has

raised questions about his promise to prioritise America and avoid expensive foreign

conflicts. The resulting disruption to Middle Eastern energy supplies has contributed

to rising petrol prices, placing further pressure on struggling households. For voters

who supported Trump on promises of economic stability and an end to overseas?

intervention, this represents an uncomfortable contradiction. Democrats will

undoubtedly exploit this disconnect, portraying Trump as a president whose

international ambitions are coming at the expense of ordinary Americans.

Winning the midterms could prove considerably easier than establishing a sustainable political identity beyond Trump's presidency.

The Democratic Dilemma:

Yet Democrats face challenges of their own. Their central electoral message has

increasingly become one of opposition: they are not Trump, and they are not the

Republicans. While this may appeal to frustrated voters, simply presenting

themselves as the alternative does not explain what they would actually do

differently.

To capitalise on Republican weaknesses, Democrats must demonstrate unity and

offer convincing policies on the economy, healthcare and employment. Without a

clear alternative vision, disillusioned Republican voters may simply stay at home

rather than switch sides. Winning the midterms could prove considerably easier than

establishing a sustainable political identity beyond Trump's presidency.

The Data Centre Crisis:

Nevertheless, Democrats have found an unexpected issue through which to

challenge Republicans: the expansion of AI data centres. These enormous facilities

power artificial intelligence and cloud computing, but their construction has become a

growing source of local opposition. Although the technology industry promises jobs

and investment, communities are increasingly concerned about the electricity and

water required to operate them, alongside their potential impact on household

energy bills.

The scale of this backlash is striking. A University of Pennsylvania Annenberg Public

Policy Centre survey published in August found that 61% of Americans opposed new.

data centres in their local area. Crucially, opposition crosses traditional political

boundaries: 69% of Democrats, 54% of Republicans and 53% of independents

expressed opposition. A separate October NPR/PBS News/Marist poll found that

66% of likely voters opposed local data centre construction.

This could prove particularly damaging for Republicans because Trump has strongly.

supported expanding American AI infrastructure to maintain technological

dominance over China. His enthusiasm for the industry is increasingly at odds with

ordinary residents. In rural and suburban communities, where electricity costs and

water supplies are significant concerns, the prospect of technology companies

benefiting while local residents face higher bills has become politically contentious.

An Unexpected Election Battleground:

The controversy is already influencing election campaigns, with millions spent on

political advertisements mentioning data centres. In numerous states, local

communities are considering measures to restrict or regulate new developments.

Ohio, in particular, has become a battleground over data centre construction.

For Democrats, this offers an opportunity to attract voters beyond their traditional

support base. Opposition to data centres is not necessarily opposition to artificial

intelligence itself; rather, it reflects concerns about who benefits from technological

progress and who bears its costs. By presenting themselves as defenders of local

communities against powerful technology companies, Democrats could attract

independent and traditionally Republican voters who feel overlooked by Washington.

Can Trump Defy Political Gravity?

Republicans retain some significant advantages. Their considerable fundraising

resources allow them to spend heavily on advertising, while Trump's ability to

mobilise his political base should not be underestimated. However, financial

resources cannot necessarily overcome widespread dissatisfaction. Even an

extensive advertising campaign may struggle to convince voters that their everyday

concerns are being addressed.

Ultimately, these midterms represent more than a judgement on individuals.

Republican candidates: they are a referendum on Trump's second presidency. A

Democratic victory in either chamber of Congress would significantly restrict his

ability to advance his legislative agenda during the remaining two years of his

presidency.

Trump may still command the microphone, the money and the movement. But come

November, none of that will matter if he has lost the one thing no president can

govern without - the confidence of the people.

Image: Wikimedia Commons