Vive la confusion! – Departures, division and dire straits for Macron

By Dylan Balch

When Sebastien Lecornu resigned as Prime Minister on 6th October, after only 26 days in office, the fragility of the French framework was uncovered for all to see. The French government did not merely witness a personnel change at the top of government; it experienced a shockwave that laid bare the tenuous state of Emmanuel Macron’s presidency. The swift reinstatement that followed - an attempt at damage control - only magnified the sense of crisis. A government that can’t keep its leadership steady looks unfit for the momentous decisions confronting the Republic.

Lecornu’s initial departure was portrayed as a tactical move to take political responsibility for a spate of controversies and faltering policy initiatives. But resignations are political language. They can signal accountability or serve as a prelude to deeper manoeuvring. In this case, the scale and speed of the reversal screamed chaos and pure improvisation. Reinstatement is often meant to project continuity. This affair underlined the opposite. A president and a political machine scrambling to plug leaks without a coherent long-term strategy. Already facing a “Greek-style debt crisis” and a pressing populist threat, this turbulent episode in government exposed two immediate weaknesses.

First, Macron’s political base is fragmented. The president has long relied on a cross-spectrum coalition. This was only amplified after the 2024 elections, which resulted in a hung parliament. When friction within a frangible majority surfaces, there are few durable party institutions to mediate and impose discipline. Second, the executive’s credibility has been dented. If the prime minister’s authority is seen as conditional, opposition forces - especially the far right and hard-line conservatives - smell opportunity.

Macron’s approval ratings, already under strain from cost-of-living pressures, pension reforms and persistent strikes, dipped further after the Lecornu Affair. Surges in “no confidence” sentiment and the rise in the numbers saying France needs a new direction, pose an existential threat. Not only to Macron, but to moderate French politics altogether. Most alarmingly for Macron, the unrest crystallises into electoral peril. Even if France’s two-round system still offers centrists a path through coalition-building and strategic voting, the margins are shrinking, and margins matter most when turnout and tactical alliances are unpredictable.

If Macron cannot convert this crisis into a narrative of regained control and renewed purpose, his coalition risks unravelling.

Electorally, Macron has become the filling in a populist sandwich. Left-wing parties sense a chance to reframe the debate around social justice and democratic accountability. The far-right will exploit government disarray to fuse law-and-order messaging with anti-establishment resentment. If Macron cannot convert this crisis into a narrative of regained control and renewed purpose, his coalition risks unravelling. Macron’s bleak future raises immediate questions surrounding France’s part in European politics. Government humiliation, a jeopardised economy, and even being laughed at by the Italians, France is staring down the barrel of becoming the Sick Man of Europe. France’s role in Europe depends as much on perceived stability at home as on diplomatic heft abroad. The Lecornu episode reduces Macron’s immediate manoeuvrability in Brussels. EU partners watch internal turbulence nervously, particularly when it concerns a steadfast defender of the Union.

A president distracted by domestic instability has less bandwidth to lead on pivotal issues, such as defence cooperation, energy policy, and the Union’s response to geopolitical tensions. Worse, a weakened France undermines the Franco-German axis - long the EU’s engine. As a Eurosceptic, “patriotic” wave of right-wing populism sweeps across Europe, electoral fragility facing the moderate French and German leaders spells danger for the EU’s cohesion. Additionally, from a British perspective, Starmer’s unprecedentedly unpopular government should be watchfully monitoring the French situation. As one of a shrinking number of moderate European allies for Starmer, Macron’s toughening struggle can act as a Litmus test for what is in store for Britain’s PM.

Assessing the bigger picture, the most consequential risk in this crisis is political. It accelerates the possibility of a right-wing president. The far right’s narrative - that traditional elites are incompetent and that strong, decisive leadership is necessary - resonates when the mainstream appears fractured and indecisive. The current circus act coming from Macron’s government plays into the grateful hands of Marie Le Pen and the National Rally. However, the likelihood of a right-wing victory is not a foregone conclusion. France’s electoral mechanics, the variability of voter turnout, and the centrist electorate’s distaste for extremes still form counterweights. Yet, political momentum matters. If opinion polls continue to show erosion of Macron’s support and right-wing coalitions consolidate, the probability of a far-right executive rises materially. Strategic missteps, like this month’s humiliation, will only quicken that shift.

Reshuffles, spin, or ad hoc reconciliations will only postpone the reckoning. France stands at a crossroads. The question is whether France can transform this confusion into corrective reform, or whether the confusion becomes the catalyst for a lasting shift to the populist extremes.

So, for readers, Lecornu’s resignation and rapid reinstatement should be perceived as a symptom of Macron’s governance issues, not the disease. For the President, the moment calls for clarity. He must bring in real structural recalibration of governance style and rebuild political trust. Reshuffles, spin, or ad hoc reconciliations will only postpone the reckoning. France stands at a crossroads. The question is whether France can transform this confusion into corrective reform, or whether the confusion becomes the catalyst for a lasting shift to the populist extremes. For the EU and the wider world, the stakes are high. The steadiness of a key partner, and the future direction of European politics, hang in the balance. Vive la République - but also, after this episode, vive la lucidité.

Image: Zeenews