Wilders’ wild ride hits the buffers: Snap election in the Netherlands

The Netherlands are heading to early elections as the coalition government between the far-right PVV (Party for Freedom), conservative VVD (People's Party for Freedom and Democracy), the centrist NSC (New Social Contract) and the populist BBB (Farmer Citizen Movement) has collapsed. Led by an independent PM, the coalition had taken a record 225 days to form after elections in November 2023, but fell apart in June after PVV Leader Geert Wilders pulled out, swiftly followed by the NSC after a separate incident. 

The breakdown is the doing of PVV strongman and 'Dutch Trump' Geert Wilders. Long known for his anti-immigration and anti-Islam positions, he moderated some of his positions in the run-up to the 2023 election which delivered the coalition government. As always for the far-right, the reality of government left Wilders unsatisfied, despite working under a coalition agreement which foregrounded immigration management and handed his party control over it. He repeatedly threatened to collapse the government in December, and again in February, citing delays to the asylum policy programme implementation… which was the responsibility of a minister from his party—a domain he ought to be able to influence. After another four months where the minister created more controversy than progress, Wilders delivered his ultimatum: sign his unilaterally written ten-point asylum plan, or he would collapse the government. The verdict was clear. "No signature under our asylum plans. The PVV leaves the coalition", Wilders tweeted after the cabinet meeting. Coalition partners and the PM were quick to call Wilders’ actions selfish and “irresponsible”—but the damage was done. 

The collapse of the cabinet is hardly surprising—signs of the instability could be seen from the start. The PVV and NSC were already not particularly politically compatible, and things were not helped by Wilders’ propensity for tweeting. Incidents included Wilders calling one VVD politician a “scary little man” and accusing another of “[turning] the Netherlands into a big asylum centre” while government formation negotiations were still ongoing. Other parties consistently voiced concerns over the PVV’s attitude to the rule of law and the feasibility of their policies. Rarely did a post-cabinet meeting press conference from PM Schoof not involve questions concerning hostility and mistrust between coalition parties. 

This leaves out what may be the most significant factor: the PVV’s radical ill-suitability for government. Wilders’ so called ‘party’ is a one-man-band by any other name – like a guy in a trench coat pretending three people are underneath. Exploiting a Dutch electoral law loophole, the party has no governance structure, and Wilders is the only formal member. This allows him extreme manoeuvrability and centralised control but denies Wilders the ability to effectively draw on the financial resources and knowledge of a larger base. The PVV is of yet structurally incapable of bending the state to its will. Given that disagreements in the coalition have been regular and disappointment is an inevitable consequence of ineffectiveness, trigger-happy Wilders was bound to strike, especially given the bigger picture: no-one was pleased with the outcome of the government one year in. 7 in 10 voters polled supported fresh elections, including significant proportions of supporters of all parties involved, except for the VVD. At present it seems no coalition party will come out of the agreement without a bloody nose – Wilders’ PVV is down from 26% to 19%, and the BBB and NSC are facing a parliamentary wipe-out with their polling scores now in the low single digits. 

Whatever form the next government takes, it will face significant challenges. The pan European issues of the conflict in Ukraine and the cost-of-living crisis are major concerns. The Netherlands has not been immune to post-covid and post-Ukraine inflation phenomena, and is dependent on volatile global fossil-fuel energy markets: as of 2023 the Netherlands imported 87% of their energy supply. The sense of unaffordability is compounded by the Netherlands’ intensifying housing crisis. The country is facing a shortage of up to 400,000 homes, while existing properties are becoming increasingly unaffordable. With the combined factors of limited space for expansion, the nitrogen crisis and increasing population placing pressure on supply, there will be no easy answers. 

Speaking of: the Dutch nitrogen crisis. Very much the ‘gordian knot’ of Dutch politics, the crisis came to a head in 2019. That year, the Council of State struck down the government’s Nitrogen Action Plan (the technocratic instrument which provides 'nitrogen permits' on the promise of future reductions to nitrogen pollution). The issue arises as following decades of intensive agriculture, the Netherlands is a major food exporter, with the highest livestock density in the EU – but this has come at a significant environmental cost. Nitrogen levels have been found to breach Dutch and potentially EU legislation. The halting of permits has impacted businesses of all types, including construction, and angered farmers who perceive their businesses to be at risk from any adaptation plan. The issue rose to prominence in 2022-23, and was successfully leveraged into an electoral platform by the BBB. Finding an electorally palatable solution to hitting this environmental limit will be difficult.

Restoring confidence in national politics will also take work: the chaotic coalition government has left it at a record low of 4% according to RTL Nieuws. This was compounded by the resignation of foreign minister Veldkamp over resistance to impose sanctions on Israel from the VVD and BBB. This in turn triggered the resignation of his party, the NSC, from the caretaker government. With the state the polls are currently in, a five-party coalition may be required to obtain a majority in the next parliament, undoubtedly requiring extensive and lengthy negotiations.

With elections scheduled for October, parties still have time to shift the electorate, and it is difficult to predict the shape of the next government. One early trend seems to be debate over whether the PVV should be locked out of the following government. Conservative VVD party leader Dilan Yesilgoz certainly seems to think so, declaring “As far as I am concerned, Geert Wilders has excluded himself from government. He has once again squandered his chance and once again let his voters down". As a result, the Wilders’ PVV would struggle to find parties to work with to form a majority – meaning a more centrist or centre-left government is likely, although it is as yet unclear whether Yesilgoz’s VVD will be able to swallow an agreement with the former EU Commissioner Frans Timmermans’ PvdA-GL (Labour-GreenLeft) party, currently second in polling behind the PVV. One figure who may be able to break the deadlock is up-and-coming CDA leader and potential future PM candidate Henri Bontenbal. A fresh face, he and his party are benefitting from ‘sitting this one out’, and he is regularly described in reporting as a bridge-builder, capable of charting a course forward in the harsh political climate. It remains to be seen if this perception will survive what may well be a bruising campaign. 

Image: Flickr/European Union