Will Britain ever return to the EU?

By Stephen Dowe

The “Leave” victory in 2016 sparked huge anticipation among Brexiteers. Nigel Farage declared the move would “go down in history”, while Boris Johnson claimed “we can find our voice again.” However, by most accounts, the only part of Brexit that will go down in history is the economic and political chaos it caused for the United Kingdom. The Financial Times reports that UK exports are currently lower than in 2016 or 2021 due to Brexit, while Bloomberg UK reports that the move is costing the UK 100 billion a year in lost output. Furthermore, Brexit contributed to throwing the UK into a period of political turmoil with the National Centre for Social Research reporting that trust in the UK government reached a record-low in June 2024, with 45% of their sample reporting they almost never trust governments of any party to place the national interest above the interest of the political party. Subsequently, it’s not surprising Nigel Farage declared Brexit a failure in 2023, and that Keir Starmer has since pledged "an improved and ambitious relationship with our European partners.”

This naturally raises the question of how far Starmer, and the UK electorate, want to reintegrate with the EU. To understand how strong demand is among the electorate we can study a January 2025 YouGov poll which asked voting-age citizens how they view the EU. 

First, we find clear evidence that the majority of the sample perceive Brexit as a failure with 55% viewing Brexit as the “wrong decision,” relative to 35% who view Brexit as the “right decision.” This poll also shows that 53% of the sample support Britain rejoining the EU, relative to the 36% who oppose the UK rejoining the EU. Finally, 63% of the sample support a closer relationship with the EU, without custom union, single market or EU, relative to only 17% of the sample which oppose this. We also have additional evidence of demand for an improvement in Britain’s relationship with the EU, with the CBI calling for the UK and EU to “build bridges” to make it easier for people to work under either power and cooperate in areas of mutual interest like defence.

However, while this shows an increase in demand for closer ties between the EU and UK, it is far from the biggest issue for the UK electorate. In the same YouGov poll, when the sample was asked what issues were most important to them, only 7% noted the UK’s relationship with the EU, while issues like immigration (37%), the NHS (57%) and the cost of living (49%) were noted far more frequently. Therefore, despite most people demanding some form of EU reintegration, it is far from a defining political issue for most people. In fact, the 2025 YouGov poll also notes that if an EU referendum were held now, only 48% of the public would vote to rejoin – relative to the 33% who would vote to preserve Brexit. The lack of a clear majority in favour of rejoining the EU shows the electorate remains uncertain about major EU reintegration. Given the greater support for closer ties without custom union, single market or EU membership, it appears the electorate are currently more comfortable with small-scale reintegration and cooperation, and aren’t yet certain enough to demand major reintegration. This is furthered by the low ranking of the EU-UK relationship relative to other issues, suggesting a lack of the necessary political mobilisation to demand major EU-UK reintegration.

Ultimately, while there is clear growing demand among the electorate for closer EU-UK ties, it is not yet strong or mobilised enough to demand any major EU-UK reintegration.

But if most people view Brexit as a failure, then why aren’t they demanding it be reversed through major EU reintegration? I believe this is down to several factors. First, it is being drowned out in a sea of other major economic issues with the UK. A January 2025 IPSOS poll reports that, when asked who they blame for the UK’s current economic instability, Brexit received similar attention to other factors like Covid, the invasion of Ukraine, Liz Truss' mini-budget or Rachel Reeves’ autumn budget. This diverts public attention across several different economic issues meaning one issue is unlikely to become the focus of public demand for policy change.

Next, if we assume people prefer certainty and stability, then people may simply prefer to live in a post-Brexit environment. While people may recognise it’s economically poorer, they now understand the current rules of post-Brexit Britain, and may not want to enter another period of trade negotiations which would bring additional uncertainty to the UK.

Therefore, it appears that, while people favour closer EU-UK ties, they aren’t yet ready to demand major reintegration. It appears this is affecting the governmental approach to EU-UK relations, with Starmer and Reeves being unable to find sufficient grassroot mobilisation to be truly ambitious in their plans to redevelop EU-UK relations. This can be seen in Starmer's claim that he does not plan to reverse Brexit during the 2024 election campaign and the recent EU-UK agreement, which while an improvement in relations, does not contain any ground-breaking EU-UK reintegration. Furthermore, this must also be viewed in the context of the May local elections which placed immigration back at the top of the UK policy agenda. Due to the association between EU integration and high immigration, it’s unlikely that Starmer would want to be associated with major EU integration out of fear of being viewed as soft on immigration. 

Ultimately, while there is clear growing demand among the electorate for closer EU-UK ties, it is not yet strong or mobilised enough to demand any major EU-UK reintegration. By extension this means Starmer is unlikely to attempt any major EU-UK reintegration due to the political turmoil it could create. Due to this I believe the Starmer administration will only engage in minor EU-UK reintegration and cooperation, and it will be a few more years before serious political discussion can be had regarding major EU-UK reintegration (such as rejoining the free market, customs union or EU).

Image: The Michigan Journal of Economics